Integrated risk of construction diversion system based on the Monte-Carlo method

Not only have hydraulic uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty influence on dynamic risk of diversion,but also construction scheduling of dam body and its finishing duration.The integrated risk between hydraulic,hydrologic uncert ainty and the construction scheduling uncertainty should be analyzed.The paper puts forward the risk analysis model for the costruction scheduling and the risk analysis model for construction diversion on the assumption that the construction scheduling is affirmable.Thus the Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the integrated risk of construction diversion system considering hydraulic,hydrologic uncertainty and the construction scheduling uncertainty The case study shows that the research of inte grated risk model for construction diversion system and its analytical method are reasonable and effective.