An inverse approach to evaluate the risk of water resouces under climate change

A new method to evaluate the risk of water resources under climate change is proposed.The method is mainly comprised of three steps: ① build a dynamic model representing the water resources system; ② do stochastic analysis and then build a climate response function which allows linking the climate states to the performance indicator of the water resources system; ③ the climate information of GCMs is tailed to evaluate the risk.Finally, this method is applied to evaluate the climate change induced risk in Quabbin Reservoir, Massachusetts, United of States.Through 36 GCMs in A2 scenario within two periods 2036—2065 and 2066—2095, the results show that the risk with 100%-140% historical net basin supply (NBS) annual standard deviation is between 0.25 and 0.30 in 2036—2065, and between 0.30 and 0.45 in 2066—2095.