A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory

The hydrological system is extremely complex.The hydrological process in a region is mainly determined by natural conditions and human activities on the region.Both determ inistic and stochastic hydrological processes often coexist in the system.The uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling plays a vital role in searching for regularities of hydrological processes.The Bayesian theory is one of the most widely used approaches to analyzing uncertainties in hydrological modeling.In this paper,we review the recent progresses on the application of an app roach in hydrological frequency analysis,flood forecasting,as well as the coupling of deterministic and stochastic methods.Perspectives and recommendations on the subject are also provided.