LIANG Zhong-min, DAI Rong, LI Bin-quan. A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(2): 274-281.
Citation: LIANG Zhong-min, DAI Rong, LI Bin-quan. A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(2): 274-281.

A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory

Funds: The study is financially supported by the NationalBasic Research Program of China (No.2007CB714104) and the Nationa.Natu-ra.Science Foundation of China (No.50779013)
More Information
  • Received Date: January 17, 2009
  • The hydrological system is extremely complex.The hydrological process in a region is mainly determined by natural conditions and human activities on the region.Both determ inistic and stochastic hydrological processes often coexist in the system.The uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling plays a vital role in searching for regularities of hydrological processes.The Bayesian theory is one of the most widely used approaches to analyzing uncertainties in hydrological modeling.In this paper,we review the recent progresses on the application of an app roach in hydrological frequency analysis,flood forecasting,as well as the coupling of deterministic and stochastic methods.Perspectives and recommendations on the subject are also provided.
  • [1]
    BENJAMIN J R,CORNELL C A.Probability,statistics and decision for civil engineers[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1970.
    [2]
    WOOD E F,RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE I.Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events[J].Water Resources Research,1975,11(4):533-542.
    [3]
    叶守泽,夏军.水文科学研究的世纪回眸与展望[J].水科学进展,2002,13(1):93-104.(YE Shou-ze,XIA Jun.Century's retrospect and looking into the future of hydrological science[J].Advances in Water Science,2002,13(1):93-104.(in Chinese))
    [4]
    成平,陈希孺,陈桂景,等.参数估计[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,1985.(CHENG Ping,CHEN Xi-ru,CHEN Gui-jing,et al.Parameter estimation[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press,1985.(in Chinese))
    [5]
    WOOD E F,RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE I.A Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models[J].Water Resources Research,1975,11(6):839-843.
    [6]
    KUCGERA G.Combining site-specific and regional information:An empirical Bayes approach[J].Water Resources Research,1982,18(2):306-314.
    [7]
    TANG W H.Bayesian frequency analysis[J].Journal of the Hydraulics Division,1980(106):1203-1218.
    [8]
    VAN GELDER P H A J M,VAN NOORTWIJK J M,DUITS M T.Selection of probability distribution with a case study on extreme oder river discharges[C]//SCHULLER G I,KAFKA P.Safety and Reliability.Rotterdam:Balkema,1999,1475-1480.
    [9]
    GEORGE KUCZERA.Comprehensive at-site flood frequency analysis using Monte Carlo Bayesian inference[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(5):1551-1557.
    [10]
    刘攀,郭生练,田向荣,等.基于贝叶斯理论的水文频率线型选择与综合[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2005,38(5):36-40.(LIU Pan,GUO Sheng-lian,TIAN Xiang-rong,et al.Selecting and averaging of flood frequency models based on Bayesian theory[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2005,38(5):36-40.(in Chinese))
    [11]
    赵人俊.流域水文模拟[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1984:109-118.(ZHAO Ren-jun.Watershed Hydrological Modelling[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,1984.109-118(in Chinese))
    [12]
    NASH J E.A unit hydrograph-with particular reference to British catchments[J].The Institution of Civil Engineering Proceedings,1960,17:249-280.
    [13]
    CRAWFORD N H,LINSLEY R K.Digital simulation in hydrology,Stanford Watershed Model IV.Technical Report 39[R].Stanford:Department of Civil Engineering,Stanford University,1966.
    [14]
    DUAN Q,SOROOSHIAN,GUPA V K.Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models[J].Water Resources Research,1992,28(4):265-284.
    [15]
    夏军.水文非线性系统识别方法的探讨[J].水利学报,1982(1):1-9.(XIA Jun.An approach to the method of nonlinear hydrologic system identification[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1982(1):1-9.(in Chinese))
    [16]
    葛守西.现代洪水预报技术[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999:57-61.(GE Shou-xi.Modern hydrological forecasting technique[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,1999:57-61.(in Chinese))
    [17]
    BEVEN K J,BINLEY A M.The future of distributed models:Model calibration and uncertainty prediction[J].Hydrological Processes,1992,6(3):279-298.
    [18]
    莫兴国,刘苏峡.GLUE方法及其在水文不确定性分析中的应用[C]//夏军.水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2004:143-150.(MO Xing-guo,LIU Su-xia.GLUE method and its application to analyze hydrological uncertainty[C]//XIA Jun.Advances in complexity and uncertainty of water problem.Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2004:143-150.(in Chinese))
    [19]
    熊立华,郭生练.三水源新安江模型异参同效现象的研究[C]//夏军.水问题的复杂性与不确定性研究与进展.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2004:151-155.(XIONG Li-hua,GUO Sheng-lian.Study on the equifinality of Xinanjiang model[C]//XIA Jun.Advances in complexity and uncertainty of water problem.Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2004:151-155.(in Chinese))
    [20]
    李胜,梁忠民.GLUE方法分析新安江模型参数不确定性的应用研究[J].东北水利水电,2006,24(2):31-47.(LI Sheng,LIANG Zhong-min.Study on GLUE method applied to analyzing uncertainty of Xinanjiang model parameter[J].Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China,2006,24(2):31-47.(in Chinese))
    [21]
    KUCZERA G,PARENT E.Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models:Metropolis algorithm[J].Journal of Hydrology,1998,211:69-85.
    [22]
    李向阳.水文模型参数优选及不确定性分析方法研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2005.(LI Xiang-yang.Study on parameter calibration and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2005.(in Chinese))
    [23]
    梁忠民,戴荣,綦晶.基于MCMC的水文模型参数不确定性及其对预报的影响分析[C]//任立良.环境变化与水安全.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006:113-117.(LIANG Zhong-min,DAI Rong,QI Jing.Model parameter uncertainty analysis and its influence on forecasting based on MCMC[C]//REN Li-liang.Environmental change and water safety.Beijing:China WaterPower Press.2006:113-117.(in Chinese))
    [24]
    KRZYSZTOFOWICZ R.Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(9):2739-2750.
    [25]
    KRZYSZTOFOWICZ R.Bayesian system for probabilistic river stage forecasting[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,268:16-40.
    [26]
    KRZYSZTOFOWICZ R,MARANZANO C J.Bayesian system for probabilistic stage transition forecasting[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,269:15-44.
    [27]
    KAVETSKI D,KUCZERA G,FRANKS S W.Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling:1.Theory[J].Water Resources Research,2006,42:W03407.
    [28]
    AJAMI N K,DUAN Qing-yun,SOROOSHIAN S.An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework:Confronting input,parameter,and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43:W01403,[Doi: 10.1029/2005WR004745].
    [29]
    王善序.贝叶斯概率水文预报简介[J].水文,2001,21(5):33-34.(WANG Shan-xu.Introduction to Bayesian forecasting system[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2001,21(5):33-34.(in Chinese))
    [30]
    张洪刚,郭生练,刘攀,等.基于贝叶斯分析的概率洪水预报模型研究[J].水电能源科学,2004,22(1):22-25.(ZHANG Hong-gang,GUO Sheng-lian,LIU Pan,et al.Probabilistic flood forecasting model based on Bayesian method[J].Hydroelectric Energy,2004,22(1):22-25.(in Chinese))
    [31]
    钱名开,徐时进,王善序,等.淮河息县站概率预报模型研究[J].水文,2004,24(2):23-25.(QIAN Ming-kai,XU Shi-jin,WANG Shan-xu,et al.Study on the probability flood forecasting model at Xixian gauging station of Huaihe River basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2004,24(2):23-25.(in Chinese))
    [32]
    李向阳,程春田,林剑艺.基于BP神经网络的贝叶斯概率水文预报模型[J].水利学报,2006,37(3):354-359.(LI Xiang-yang,CHENG Chun-tian,LIN Jian-yi.Bayesian probabilistic forecasting model based on BP ANN[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2006,37(3):354-359.(in Chinese))
    [33]
    邢贞相.确定性水文模型的贝叶斯概率预报方法研究[D].南京:河海大学.2007.(XING Zhen-xiang.Study on Bayesian forecasting system of deterministic hydrologic models[D].Nanjing:Hohai University.2007.(in Chinese))
    [34]
    DUAN Q,AJAMI N K,GAO Xiao-gang,et al.Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging[J].Advances in Water Resources,2007,30(5):1371-1386.
    [35]
    MCLACHLAN G J,KRISHNAN T.The EM algorithm and extensions[M].New York:Wiley,1997.
    [36]
    DILKS D W,CANALE R P,MERIER P G.Development of Bayesian Monte Carlo techniques for water quality model modeling uncertainty[J].Ecological Modelling,1992,62(1/2/3):149-162.
    [37]
    PILLINO C A,WOODBERRY O,NICHOLSON A,et al.Bayesian networks in water resource modelling and management[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2007,22(8):1140-1152.
    [38]
    WOODBURY A D,ULRYCH T J.A full-Bayesian approach to the groundwater inverse problem for steady state flow[J].Water Resources Research,2000,36(8):2081-2093.
    [39]
    PETROS GAGANIS,LESLIE SMITH.A Bayesian approach to the quantification of the effect of model error on the predictions of groundwater models[J].Water Resources Research,2001,37(9):2309-2322.
    [40]
    丁晶,邓育仁.水文水资源中不确定性分析与计算的耦合途径[J].水文,1996(1):19-21.(DING Jing,DENG Yu-ren.Coupling method of uncertainty analysis and calculation in hydrology and water resources[J].Journal of China Hydrology,1996(1):19-21.(in Chinese))
    [41]
    黄伟军,丁晶.水文水资源系统贝叶斯分析现状与前景[J].水科学进展,1994,5(3):242-246.(HUANG Wei-jun,DING Jing.Hydrology and water resources system Bayesian analysis about state-of-the-art and prospect[J].Advances in Water Science,1994,5(3):242-246.(in Chinese))
    [42]
    谢平,李德,陈广才,等.基于贝叶斯公式的湖泊富营养化随机评价方法及其验证[J].长江流域资源与环境,2005,14(20):224-228.(XIE Ping,LI De,CHEN Guang-cai,et al.A lake eutrophication stochastic assessment method by using Bayesian formula and its verification[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2005,14(20):224-228.(in Chinese))
    [43]
    王建平,程声通,贾海峰.基于MCMC法的水质模型参数不确定性研究[J].环境科学,2006,27(1):24-30.(WANG Jian-ping,CHENG Sheng-tong,JIA Hai-feng.Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for parameter uncertainty analysis in water quality model[J].Environmental Science,2006,27(1):24-30.(in Chinese))

Catalog

    Article Metrics

    Article views PDF downloads Cited by()
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return