The Warm/cold Winter in East Asia and the El Niño Event

In recent decade, the winter temperature in East Asia has been increasing obviously. The analysis in this paper verifies that the temperature change in winter in East Asia has a close teleconnection with sea surface temperature(SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and the main ocean current regions of the North Pacific. If SST over the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously higher (orlower),i.e. El Niño event (or Anti El Niño event)occurs, North and Northeast China would experience a warmer (or colder) winter, and the sea ice situation of the Bohai Sea would be a light (or severe, ice year) during the period of the following 7-24 months. Based on this idea, a regressive forecasting equation was established. The forecasting results of sea ice situation of the Bohai Sea in 1988/1989 and 1989/1990 winters were pretty good.