WU Lei, XU Youpeng, WANG Qiang, XU Yu, GAO Bin. Evolution and non-stationary characteristics of summer precipitation structure over the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2022, 33(5): 730-742. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.004
Citation: WU Lei, XU Youpeng, WANG Qiang, XU Yu, GAO Bin. Evolution and non-stationary characteristics of summer precipitation structure over the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2022, 33(5): 730-742. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2022.05.004

Evolution and non-stationary characteristics of summer precipitation structure over the Yangtze River Delta

  • This research aimed to determine the evolution and non-stationarity characteristics of summer precipitation structure over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in a changing environment. Based on the daily precipitation data from 72 rain gauges over the YRD during 1960—2016, the methods of Pettit and Mann-Kendall were applied to investigate the spatio-temporal variation rules of summer precipitation, considering the variables of precipitation amount, days, intensity and the incidence rates of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, and rainstorms, and analyze their causes. The results showed that the incidence rate of light rain decreased through time at most gauges, but the other six indices increased at most gauges. Among these, the non-stationarity in the incidence rate of light rain decreased monotonically, while the non-stationarity characteristics of precipitation amount, intensity, and incidence rates of heavy rain and rainstorms increased monotonically. These gauges were mainly scattered in the Tai Lake Basin, suggesting that this region is likely to face even greater risks from flooding. For most gauges, the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon was positively associated with the incidence rate of light rain, but it was negatively associated with the other six indices. Take the Tai Lake basin as an example, urbanization increased the precipitation amount, intensity and incidence rates of heavy rain and rainstorms, with contribution rates of 25.4%, 27.9%, 54.6%, and 25.5%, respectively. However, urbanization decreased the precipitation days and the incidence rates of light rain and moderate rain, with contribution rates of -37.3%, -33.2%, and -100%, respectively.
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