Reservoir operation model coupling long-term forecast of intake reservoir in inter-basin water diversion

In order to improve the water diversion effectiveness of intake reservoir in inter-basin water diversion project, the intake reservoir operation model coupling long-term runoff forecast is studied. First, the information of runoff forecast in flood season is employed, and the prior probability is corrected by runoff forecast probability to describe the runoff uncertainty. The stochastic dynamic programming model (BSDP-LTF) is established. Then the model is compared with stochastic dynamic programming model considering inflow correlation only (SDP-I) and stochastic dynamic programming model considering long-term forecast only (SDP-LTF) in Biliuhe reservoir. Comparative results show that the water diversion is reduced by 8.2% and 4.1% for the BSDP-LTF model when compared with SDP-I and SDP-LTF in condition of basically the same water supply reliability and not increasing operation risk. The results indicate that the BSDP-LTF model improves the runoff description effectively, and increases the effectiveness of the inter-basin water diversion.