混沌分析在水文预测中的应用和展望

Application of Chaotic Anylysis in Hydrologic Prediction

摘要: 简述了将混沌理论应用于水文预测中需要解决的三个关键问题:(1)水文系统重建相空间技术;(2)水文系统混沌性识别;(3)水文混沌预测方法。分析了现有的研究成果和最新进展,并指出今后需要开展的工作及存在的问题。

Abstract: The reconstruction of chaoticstate space and the diagnosis of chaotic behavio ras well as the nonlinear state space prediction methods of observed hydrologic time series are discussed.The advances of chaotic analysis in hydrology are also reported.The works to be carried out are considered in the future.