三峡水库汛末蓄水时间与目标决策研究

Study on the impounding time and objective decision of the Three Gorges Project at the end of flood period

摘要: 针对三峡水库运行中存在的防洪、发电与航运之间的矛盾,研究了汛末不同蓄水方案下,三峡水库的防洪风险、发电以及上下游航运效益的变化情况;通过寻求水库防洪、发电及航运之间的相互关系,建立水库水沙联合调度模型,对三峡水库汛末蓄水时间和方式进行了多目标决策;应用加权均衡规划排序模型对非劣方案进行评价,给出了三峡水库汛末蓄水运行的最佳方案,为三峡工程正式建成后制定合理的调度运用方案提供科学依据。

Abstract: To counter the contradictions among the electricity generation, flood control and navigation in the Three Gorges Project (TGP) operation, the flood risk and the benefit of generation and shipping in different impounding schemes is studied, the reservoir water sediment regulation multi-purpose decision model is developed by the relationships between the flood risk, generation and shipping benefit, in order to study its optimum impounding time and mode, and a weighted balance mode is applied to decide an optimum impounding scheme.The results can be used for the TGP operation.