冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

王世金; 秦大河; 任贾文

doi:CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

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冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2012 > 23(5): 735-742

王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文. 冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

引用本文:

王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文. 冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

WANG Shi-jin, QIN Da-he, REN Jia-wen. Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

Citation:

WANG Shi-jin, QIN Da-he, REN Jia-wen. Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000

基金项目: 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2012-03-03)和开放基金(SKLCS 2011-04)联合资助

详细信息

作者简介:
王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com

中图分类号: P343.6;G353.11

Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts

State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the Independent Project (No.SKLCS_ZZ_2012-03-03) and the openfund (No.SKLCS 2011-04) from state Key Laborotary of Cryospheric Sciences

摘要: 系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。
- 冰湖溃决 /
- 灾害风险 /
- 溃决洪水 /
- 溃决概率 /
- 危险性
Abstract: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are natural hazards to the socioeconomic system in hazard regions. However, their predictions still remain worldwide challenge, and thus have attracted much attention in the scientific community as well as society at large. As a result, much progress has been made in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts. This paper provides an overview of the subject both nationally and internationally. The reviews show that the previous studies focused mainly on the triggering mechanisms and characteristics of glacier lake outbursts, the risk assessment and probabilistic estimation of glacier lake outbursts, and the prediction of maximum GLOF discharge, as well as the GLOF simulation. However, only a few studies have been made on the risk assessment of vulnerability, exposure and adaptation for the socioeconomic system in hazard regions. Therefore, there is a need to enhancing the comprehensive risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts, towards a better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of GLOF risks. The comprehensive risk assessment can provide an important theoretical reference to hazard preventions and mitigations, as well as the establishment of early warning system in hazard regions.
- glacier lake outburst /
- hazard risk /
- outburst flood /
- outburst probability /
- risk

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冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000

基金项目: 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2012-03-03)和开放基金(SKLCS 2011-04)联合资助

作者简介:
王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com

收稿日期: 2011-10-08
修回日期: 2012-08-24
刊出日期: 2012-09-25

中图分类号: P343.6;G353.11

关键词:

摘要: 系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。

English Abstract

Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts

State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the Independent Project (No.SKLCS_ZZ_2012-03-03) and the openfund (No.SKLCS 2011-04) from state Key Laborotary of Cryospheric Sciences

Received Date: 2011-10-08
Rev Recd Date: 2012-08-24
Publish Date: 2012-09-25

Keywords:

Abstract: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are natural hazards to the socioeconomic system in hazard regions. However, their predictions still remain worldwide challenge, and thus have attracted much attention in the scientific community as well as society at large. As a result, much progress has been made in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts. This paper provides an overview of the subject both nationally and internationally. The reviews show that the previous studies focused mainly on the triggering mechanisms and characteristics of glacier lake outbursts, the risk assessment and probabilistic estimation of glacier lake outbursts, and the prediction of maximum GLOF discharge, as well as the GLOF simulation. However, only a few studies have been made on the risk assessment of vulnerability, exposure and adaptation for the socioeconomic system in hazard regions. Therefore, there is a need to enhancing the comprehensive risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts, towards a better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of GLOF risks. The comprehensive risk assessment can provide an important theoretical reference to hazard preventions and mitigations, as well as the establishment of early warning system in hazard regions.

王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文. 冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

引用本文:

王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文. 冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

Citation:

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冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

作者简介: 王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com

Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts

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冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120824.1607.017

中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000

作者简介: 王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com

English Abstract

Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts

State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Region Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

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作者简介:
王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com

作者简介:
王世金(1975- ),男,甘肃金昌人,博士后,主要从事冰冻圈变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xiaohanjin@126.com