鲍振鑫, 张建云, 严小林, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏, 关铁生, 刘艳丽. 基于四元驱动的海河流域河川径流变化归因定量识别[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(2): 171-181. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.02.002
引用本文: 鲍振鑫, 张建云, 严小林, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏, 关铁生, 刘艳丽. 基于四元驱动的海河流域河川径流变化归因定量识别[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32(2): 171-181. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.02.002
BAO Zhenxin, ZHANG Jianyun, YAN Xiaolin, WANG Guoqing, HE Ruimin, GUAN Tiesheng, LIU Yanli. Quantitative assessment of the attribution of runoff change caused by four factors in the Haihe River basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021, 32(2): 171-181. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.02.002
Citation: BAO Zhenxin, ZHANG Jianyun, YAN Xiaolin, WANG Guoqing, HE Ruimin, GUAN Tiesheng, LIU Yanli. Quantitative assessment of the attribution of runoff change caused by four factors in the Haihe River basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021, 32(2): 171-181. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.02.002

基于四元驱动的海河流域河川径流变化归因定量识别

Quantitative assessment of the attribution of runoff change caused by four factors in the Haihe River basin

  • 摘要: 海河流域水资源极为短缺,河川径流下降显著,定量识别径流变化成因对于科学认识流域水循环演变机理、支撑水资源开发利用具有重要的科学意义和实际价值。基于模型参数区域化技术构建了海河流域可变下渗容量(VIC)模型,重构了流域天然河川径流序列。建立了气温变化、降水变化、下垫面变化和取用水四元要素驱动的河川径流变化归因定量识别技术体系,分析了4种因子在海河流域河川径流减少中的贡献。结果表明:①1956—2010年,人类活动是海河流域河川径流减少的主要原因,但是气候变化的影响不可忽略,其中气候变化的贡献约为1/3,人类活动的贡献约占2/3;气候变化中,降水下降的贡献远大于气温升高的影响,分别约为30%和4%;人类活动中,取用水的影响大于下垫面变化的影响,分别约为55%和11%。②海河流域4个水资源二级区的河川径流变化成因相比,从北向南气温升高的影响减小,降水减小的影响增大,海河北系和海河南系的取用水影响较大,滦河流域径流变化时间较晚,徒骇马颊河径流变化程度最小。

     

    Abstract: In this work, Water shortage problem is severe in the Haihe River basin (HRB). Furthermore, there is a statistically significant decreasing trend in runoff in the HRB. Quantitative assessment of the attribution of runoff change has important scientific significance to investigate the mechanism of water cycle and to support the sustainable utilization of water resources. Using regionalization approach, the model parameters of the VIC model are estimated for the whole HRB, and the natural runoff has been reconstructed. A quantitative attribution assessment framework for runoff change driven by temperature change, precipitation change, underlying surface change and water withdrawal has been constructed. The results indicates that human activities are the main reason for the runoff decrease in the HRB during 1956-2010. Generally, climate change and human activities account for 1/3 and 2/3 of the runoff decrease, respectively. In climate change, the contribution of precipitation decline (30%) is much higher than the impact of temperature increase (4%). In human activities, the influence of water withdrawal (55%) is greater than that of underlying surface change (11%). Spatially, from north HRB to south HRB, the impact of temperature change decreases, while the influence of precipitation change increases. Relatively, the breakpoint of runoff is later in the Luanhe River Basin, the contribution of water withdrawal in the north HRB and south HRB is higher than that in other regions, and the decreasing trend in runoff is slight and the attribution is uncertain in the Tuhaimajia River basin.

     

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