变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

黄生志; 杜梦; 李沛; 郭怿; 王璐

doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

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变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

黄生志, 杜梦, 李沛, 郭怿, 王璐

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2019 > 30(4): 496-506

黄生志, 杜梦, 李沛, 郭怿, 王璐. 变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

引用本文:

黄生志, 杜梦, 李沛, 郭怿, 王璐. 变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

HUANG Shengzhi, DU Meng, LI Pei, GUO Yi, WANG Lu. Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

Citation:

HUANG Shengzhi, DU Meng, LI Pei, GUO Yi, WANG Lu. Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西西安 710048

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51709221）；陕西省水利科技计划资助项目（2017slkj-19）

详细信息

作者简介:
黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com

通讯作者:
杜梦,E-mail:dom1204@163.com

中图分类号: TV125

Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment

State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51709221).

摘要: 降雨的时空分布过于集中会诱发洪旱灾害。研究降雨集中度的变异及其驱动力有助于全面掌握降雨对变化环境的响应特征，为区域水资源的综合利用与灾害预警提供依据。以汉江流域为研究对象，选取月降雨集中度指数（CIM）和日降雨集中度指数（CID）表征降雨集中度，并采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法与启发式分割算法对降雨集中度进行变异分析，利用交叉小波变换探究太阳黑子与大气环流异常因子对降雨集中度变化的影响。结果表明：①汉江流域CIM北大南小，呈不显著的下降趋势；CID东大西小，在6个站呈显著上升趋势；②流域部分站点CID发生突变，而CIM序列较为平稳，表明CID相比CIM对变化环境的响应更为敏感；③太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子对降雨集中度的变化有较强的影响，其中太阳黑子的影响最大，它通过影响大气环流异常因子间接影响汉江流域的降雨集中度。
- 降雨集中度 /
- 变异诊断 /
- 驱动力 /
- 交叉小波变换 /
- 太阳黑子
Abstract: The excessive concentration of precipitation in its spatial and temporal distributions could lead to occurrence of flood and drought disasters. Investigating the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces is fundamental for understanding precipitation responses to the changing environment,thus facilitating regional water resources management and early warning of natural disasters. This study investigated the historical changes in precipitation concentration at daily and monthly timescales in the Hanjiang River basin,based on the monthly precipitation concentration index (CIM) and daily precipitation concentration index (CID). The Mann-Kendall trend test and heuristic segmentation algorithm were used to analyze the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration. The potential influences of sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration were explored using the cross wavelet analysis technique. Results showed that:① Large values of CIM were found in the northern Hanjiang River basin,while small CIM values were observed in the south part of the study region. As for the CID,large values were found in the east part,with small values observed in the west. CIM has showed an insignificant downward trend,while a significant upward trend of CID was detected at 6 stations;② Mutation points of the CID series were detected at some stations in the basin,while the CIM is shown to be relatively stable,indicating that the CID is more sensitive to the changing environment than the CIM;③ Sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors have exerted strong influences on the changes in precipitation concentration. Notably,sunspots have exerted the largest influences,as they can indirectly affect precipitation concentration of the Hanjiang River basin through modulating the anomalous atmospheric circulation factors.
- precipitation concentration /
- variation diagnosis /
- driving force /
- cross wavelet analysis /
- sunspots

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变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西西安 710048

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51709221）；陕西省水利科技计划资助项目（2017slkj-19）

作者简介:
黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com

通讯作者: 杜梦,E-mail:dom1204@163.com

收稿日期: 2019-01-03
刊出日期: 2019-08-25

中图分类号: TV125

关键词:

驱动力 /

摘要: 降雨的时空分布过于集中会诱发洪旱灾害。研究降雨集中度的变异及其驱动力有助于全面掌握降雨对变化环境的响应特征，为区域水资源的综合利用与灾害预警提供依据。以汉江流域为研究对象，选取月降雨集中度指数（CIM）和日降雨集中度指数（CID）表征降雨集中度，并采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法与启发式分割算法对降雨集中度进行变异分析，利用交叉小波变换探究太阳黑子与大气环流异常因子对降雨集中度变化的影响。结果表明：①汉江流域CIM北大南小，呈不显著的下降趋势；CID东大西小，在6个站呈显著上升趋势；②流域部分站点CID发生突变，而CIM序列较为平稳，表明CID相比CIM对变化环境的响应更为敏感；③太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子对降雨集中度的变化有较强的影响，其中太阳黑子的影响最大，它通过影响大气环流异常因子间接影响汉江流域的降雨集中度。

English Abstract

Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment

State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51709221).

Received Date: 2019-01-03
Publish Date: 2019-08-25

Keywords:

Abstract: The excessive concentration of precipitation in its spatial and temporal distributions could lead to occurrence of flood and drought disasters. Investigating the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces is fundamental for understanding precipitation responses to the changing environment,thus facilitating regional water resources management and early warning of natural disasters. This study investigated the historical changes in precipitation concentration at daily and monthly timescales in the Hanjiang River basin,based on the monthly precipitation concentration index (CIM) and daily precipitation concentration index (CID). The Mann-Kendall trend test and heuristic segmentation algorithm were used to analyze the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration. The potential influences of sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration were explored using the cross wavelet analysis technique. Results showed that:① Large values of CIM were found in the northern Hanjiang River basin,while small CIM values were observed in the south part of the study region. As for the CID,large values were found in the east part,with small values observed in the west. CIM has showed an insignificant downward trend,while a significant upward trend of CID was detected at 6 stations;② Mutation points of the CID series were detected at some stations in the basin,while the CIM is shown to be relatively stable,indicating that the CID is more sensitive to the changing environment than the CIM;③ Sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors have exerted strong influences on the changes in precipitation concentration. Notably,sunspots have exerted the largest influences,as they can indirectly affect precipitation concentration of the Hanjiang River basin through modulating the anomalous atmospheric circulation factors.

黄生志, 杜梦, 李沛, 郭怿, 王璐. 变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

引用本文:

黄生志, 杜梦, 李沛, 郭怿, 王璐. 变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(4): 496-506. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

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变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

作者简介: 黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com

通讯作者: 杜梦,E-mail:dom1204@163.com

Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment

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变化环境下降雨集中度的变异与驱动力探究

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.04.005

西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西西安 710048

作者简介: 黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com

通讯作者: 杜梦,E-mail:dom1204@163.com

English Abstract

Investigation of the abrupt changes in precipitation concentration and the driving forces under the changing environment

State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China

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作者简介:
黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com

通讯作者:
杜梦,E-mail:dom1204@163.com

作者简介:
黄生志(1988-),男,湖南郴州人,副教授,博士,主要从事干旱的形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究。E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com