高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

张超; 胡志根

doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

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高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

张超, 胡志根

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2019 > 30(1): 102-111

张超, 胡志根. 高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

引用本文:

张超, 胡志根. 高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

ZHANG Chao, HU Zhigen. Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

Citation:

ZHANG Chao, HU Zhigen. Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

张超¹,
胡志根^2,

1.
中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川成都 610072;
2.
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北武汉 430072

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779195）；成都勘测设计研究院青年科技基金资助项目（P294-2015）

详细信息

作者简介:
张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

通讯作者:
胡志根,zhigenhu@whu.edu.cn

中图分类号: TV551.1

Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application

ZHANG Chao¹,
HU Zhigen^2
,

1.
Powerchina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Ltd, Chengdu 610072, China;
2.
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

摘要: 面向工程设计阶段，采用高拱坝施工动态仿真技术获取施工初-中期挡水度汛面貌数据，综合考虑水文、水力随机性因素，构建高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型，提出采用Monte Carlo方法耦合挡水度汛面貌数据和主要随机因素进行风险模型求解的方法。基于风险分析原理提出了导流洞设计的风险判别方法，给出导流洞尺寸设计优化的数学模型和具体步骤。通过金沙江上游某高拱坝工程案例分析的结果表明：所提风险模型及求解方法是适用的、有效的，该模型能够得到整个施工初-中期导流风险率，较为客观地反映高拱坝施工中期度汛可能存在的两种挡水情况，克服了初期导流风险模型的局限性；施工中期导流风险率随导流洞尺寸增大而减小，导流洞尺寸设计的可行方案集存在界限，即优化方案。研究成果可为高拱坝施工导流的风险决策和设计优化提供理论支撑。
- 高拱坝施工 /
- 风险模型 /
- 设计优化 /
- 初-中期导流 /
- 施工动态仿真 /
- Monte Carlo方法
Abstract: The diversion tunnel of high arch dam located in canyon areasruns through the initial to middlestages of dam construction. Investigating the creation and solution of a diversion risk model of the initial and middle stages of high arch dam construction is therefore important to the design optimization of diversion tunnels. The present work focuses on the engineering design stage and makes use of the dynamic simulation technology of high arch dam construction to collect morphological data covering water retaining and dam protection from the initial to middle stages of construction. We here established a risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction considering the factors of hydrology and hydraulic randomness,and a method of solving the risk model using Monte Carlo method,which couples with the water retaining and dam protection morphological data and the major random factors,is proposed in this work. Based on the principle of risk analysis,a risk recognition method for the design of diversion tunnel is proposed,and the mathematical model and detailed steps for the design optimization of diversion tunnel dimensions are given. The results of the case study of a high arch dam in the upper reaches of Jinsha River show that the proposed risk model and the solution method are applicable and effective;the model can be used to determine the risk rate of the initial to middle stages of the entire construction project,and it can objectively reflect the two possible water retaining conditions of the high arch dam during the middle stage of the dam protection period and overcome the limitations of the initial diversion risk model;during the middle stage of construction,the diversion risk rate decreases with the increase in diversion tunnel dimensions;and the feasible scheme set of diversion tunnel dimension designs has a boundary,i. e. the optimal scheme. The outcomes of this study can provide theoretical support for risk decision-making and design optimization for the construction of diversion structures for high arch dams.
- construction of high arch dam /
- risk model /
- design optimization /
- flow diversion in the initial through middle stages /
- construction dynamic simulation /
- Monte Carlo method

[1]	白直旭, 黄艳, 许月萍. 测流不确定度的插值方差估计法 . 水科学进展, 2017, 28(1): 59-66. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.007
[2]	张超, 胡志根. 高堆石坝中期度汛挡水风险率估计 . 水科学进展, 2014, 25(6): 873-879.
[3]	张超, 胡志根, 刘全. 梯级施工导流系统整体风险分析 . 水科学进展, 2012, 23(3): 396-402. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120501.1617.008
[4]	卢有麟, 周建中, 王浩, 张勇传. 三峡梯级枢纽多目标生态优化调度模型及其求解方法 . 水科学进展, 2011, 22(6): 780-788.
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[6]	范锡峨, 胡志根, 靳鹏. 基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工导流系统综合风险分析 . 水科学进展, 2007, 18(4): 604-608.
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[8]	李福田, 刘沛清, 马宝峰. 高拱坝宽尾墩三维流场数值模拟 . 水科学进展, 2005, 16(2): 185-188.
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[10]	钟登华, 熊开智, 戚蓝. 输水系统可视化动态仿真研究 . 水科学进展, 2004, 15(2): 238-242.
[11]	王才君, 郭生练, 刘攀, 周芬, 熊立华. 三峡水库动态汛限水位洪水调度风险指标及综合评价模型研究 . 水科学进展, 2004, 15(3): 376-381.
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高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

张超¹,
胡志根^2,

1. 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川成都 610072;

2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北武汉 430072

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779195）；成都勘测设计研究院青年科技基金资助项目（P294-2015）

作者简介:
张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

通讯作者: 胡志根,zhigenhu@whu.edu.cn

收稿日期: 2018-01-10
刊出日期: 2019-02-25

中图分类号: TV551.1

关键词:

摘要: 面向工程设计阶段，采用高拱坝施工动态仿真技术获取施工初-中期挡水度汛面貌数据，综合考虑水文、水力随机性因素，构建高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型，提出采用Monte Carlo方法耦合挡水度汛面貌数据和主要随机因素进行风险模型求解的方法。基于风险分析原理提出了导流洞设计的风险判别方法，给出导流洞尺寸设计优化的数学模型和具体步骤。通过金沙江上游某高拱坝工程案例分析的结果表明：所提风险模型及求解方法是适用的、有效的，该模型能够得到整个施工初-中期导流风险率，较为客观地反映高拱坝施工中期度汛可能存在的两种挡水情况，克服了初期导流风险模型的局限性；施工中期导流风险率随导流洞尺寸增大而减小，导流洞尺寸设计的可行方案集存在界限，即优化方案。研究成果可为高拱坝施工导流的风险决策和设计优化提供理论支撑。

English Abstract

Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application

ZHANG Chao¹,
HU Zhigen^2,

1. Powerchina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Ltd, Chengdu 610072, China;

2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Received Date: 2018-01-10
Publish Date: 2019-02-25

Keywords:

construction of high arch dam /
risk model /
design optimization /
flow diversion in the initial through middle stages /
construction dynamic simulation /
Monte Carlo method

Abstract: The diversion tunnel of high arch dam located in canyon areasruns through the initial to middlestages of dam construction. Investigating the creation and solution of a diversion risk model of the initial and middle stages of high arch dam construction is therefore important to the design optimization of diversion tunnels. The present work focuses on the engineering design stage and makes use of the dynamic simulation technology of high arch dam construction to collect morphological data covering water retaining and dam protection from the initial to middle stages of construction. We here established a risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction considering the factors of hydrology and hydraulic randomness,and a method of solving the risk model using Monte Carlo method,which couples with the water retaining and dam protection morphological data and the major random factors,is proposed in this work. Based on the principle of risk analysis,a risk recognition method for the design of diversion tunnel is proposed,and the mathematical model and detailed steps for the design optimization of diversion tunnel dimensions are given. The results of the case study of a high arch dam in the upper reaches of Jinsha River show that the proposed risk model and the solution method are applicable and effective;the model can be used to determine the risk rate of the initial to middle stages of the entire construction project,and it can objectively reflect the two possible water retaining conditions of the high arch dam during the middle stage of the dam protection period and overcome the limitations of the initial diversion risk model;during the middle stage of construction,the diversion risk rate decreases with the increase in diversion tunnel dimensions;and the feasible scheme set of diversion tunnel dimension designs has a boundary,i. e. the optimal scheme. The outcomes of this study can provide theoretical support for risk decision-making and design optimization for the construction of diversion structures for high arch dams.

张超, 胡志根. 高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

引用本文:

张超, 胡志根. 高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(1): 102-111. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

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高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

作者简介: 张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

通讯作者: 胡志根,zhigenhu@whu.edu.cn

Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application

计量

出版历程

高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.01.011

1. 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川 成都 610072; 2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430072

作者简介: 张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

通讯作者: 胡志根,zhigenhu@whu.edu.cn

English Abstract

Risk model of flow diversion in the initial through middle stages for high arch dam construction and its application

1. Powerchina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Ltd, Chengdu 610072, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

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作者简介:
张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

通讯作者:
胡志根,zhigenhu@whu.edu.cn

1. 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司, 四川成都 610072;

2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北武汉 430072

作者简介:
张超(1985-),男,湖北襄阳人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事施工导截流风险决策研究与工程设计。E-mail:hippop888@163.com

1. Powerchina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Ltd, Chengdu 610072, China;

2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China