Abstract:
In order to research the appearance of agricultural drought under the actual water projects, the computational method for the return periods of drought events, based on the regional agricultural water consumption, is presented in this study. Through the drought index establishment of the anomalous percentages of agricultural water consumption(
WA), on the basis of drought events recognized by the drought index
PA of precipitation anomalous percentages, the drought characteristic variable of the severity and duration for drought events based on
WA were extracted. Meanwhile, according to the frequency distribution curves
FS(
x) of drought severity and the frequency distribution curves
FD(
x) of drought duration obtained with
PA as the drought index, the return periods
T of drought events based on
WA were computed by use of the simplified method of Copula. Finally, combined with the return periods
T0 of drought events based on
PA, the formula of relationship between
T and
T0 was obtained through the analysis of regression. The method was applied into Bozhou city as the exemplary region for the severest influence from the drought, and the empirical relation between
T and
T0 was built as per all the drought events from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate:compared with
T0, the severity of drought events judged by
T is more consistent with the reality; there is an essential correlation between
T0 and
T, and the regression equation of
T can be accepted as the simple estimation formula of return periods
T of drought events when it comes to actual drought resistance ability of one region, and is valuable for popularized application in the process of drought mitigation and loss reduction of one region.