基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

张宇亮; 蒋尚明; 金菊良; 吴志勇; 周玉良

doi:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

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基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2017 > 28(5): 691-701

张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良. 基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

引用本文:

张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良. 基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

ZHANG Yuliang, JIANG Shangming, JIN Juliang, WU Zhiyong, ZHOU Yuliang. Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

Citation:

ZHANG Yuliang, JIANG Shangming, JIN Juliang, WU Zhiyong, ZHOU Yuliang. Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

1.
河海大学水文水资源学院水问题研究所, 江苏南京 210098;
2.
安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室, 安徽合肥 230088;
3.
合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;
4.
合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51579059；51409002）

详细信息

作者简介:
张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
金菊良,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

中图分类号: P33

Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption

1.
Institute of Water Problems, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2.
Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, China;
3.
School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
4.
Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering Institute, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51579059; No. 51409002).

摘要: 为研究实际水利条件下农业干旱的发生规律，简化农业干旱事件的评估方法，提出基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法。通过构建农业用水量距平百分率干旱指标W_A，在基于降雨量距平百分率干旱指标P_A识别干旱事件的基础上，提取W_A干旱指标下的干旱历时和干旱烈度特征变量，并根据以P_A为干旱指标的干旱烈度频率分布曲线F_S（x）和干旱历时频率分布曲线F_D（x），运用Copula的简化方法计算基于W_A的干旱事件重现期T，最后结合基于P_A的干旱事件重现期T₀，回归分析出T与T₀间关系的计算公式。选取干旱灾害影响严重的亳州市为实证区域开展应用研究，计算得到1975-2007年各场干旱事件的T₀和T以及T₀与T的经验关系式。结果表明：T比T₀更合理地反映区域农业实际受旱状况，重现期T₀和T间存在高度的相关关系，采用T的回归方程可简化计算考虑区域实际抗旱能力下的干旱事件重现期，在区域防旱减灾实践中具有推广应用价值。
- 农业干旱 /
- 干旱重现期 /
- 频率分析 /
- 农业用水量 /
- Copula函数 /
- 抗旱能力 /
- 亳州市
Abstract: In order to research the appearance of agricultural drought under the actual water projects, the computational method for the return periods of drought events, based on the regional agricultural water consumption, is presented in this study. Through the drought index establishment of the anomalous percentages of agricultural water consumption(W_A), on the basis of drought events recognized by the drought index P_A of precipitation anomalous percentages, the drought characteristic variable of the severity and duration for drought events based on W_A were extracted. Meanwhile, according to the frequency distribution curves F_S(x) of drought severity and the frequency distribution curves F_D(x) of drought duration obtained with P_A as the drought index, the return periods T of drought events based on W_A were computed by use of the simplified method of Copula. Finally, combined with the return periods T₀ of drought events based on P_A, the formula of relationship between T and T₀ was obtained through the analysis of regression. The method was applied into Bozhou city as the exemplary region for the severest influence from the drought, and the empirical relation between T and T₀ was built as per all the drought events from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate:compared with T₀, the severity of drought events judged by T is more consistent with the reality; there is an essential correlation between T₀ and T, and the regression equation of T can be accepted as the simple estimation formula of return periods T of drought events when it comes to actual drought resistance ability of one region, and is valuable for popularized application in the process of drought mitigation and loss reduction of one region.
- agricultural drought /
- return periods of drought /
- frequency analysis /
- agricultural water consumption /
- Copula function /
- drought resistance ability /
- Bozhou city

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[7]	刘文琨, 裴源生, 赵勇, 肖伟华. 区域气象干旱评估分析模式 . 水科学进展, 2014, 25(3): 318-326.
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[9]	梁忠民, 郭彦, 胡义明, 汤春义. 基于copula函数的三峡水库预泄对鄱阳湖防洪影响分析 . 水科学进展, 2012, 23(4): 485-492. doi: CNKI:32.1309.P.20120614.2158.008
[10]	吴迪, 裴源生, 赵勇, 严登华. 基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析 . 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 599-608. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120614.2158.006
[11]	陈璐, 郭生练, 张洪刚, 闫宝伟, 刘心愿. 长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析 . 水科学进展, 2011, 22(3): 323-330.
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[13]	陆桂华, 闫桂霞, 吴志勇, 康燕霞. 基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法 . 水科学进展, 2010, 21(2): 188-193.
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基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

1. 河海大学水文水资源学院水问题研究所, 江苏南京 210098;

2. 安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室, 安徽合肥 230088;

3. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;

4. 合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51579059；51409002）

作者简介:
张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

收稿日期: 2017-03-31
刊出日期: 2017-09-25

中图分类号: P33

关键词:

摘要: 为研究实际水利条件下农业干旱的发生规律，简化农业干旱事件的评估方法，提出基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法。通过构建农业用水量距平百分率干旱指标W_A，在基于降雨量距平百分率干旱指标P_A识别干旱事件的基础上，提取W_A干旱指标下的干旱历时和干旱烈度特征变量，并根据以P_A为干旱指标的干旱烈度频率分布曲线F_S（x）和干旱历时频率分布曲线F_D（x），运用Copula的简化方法计算基于W_A的干旱事件重现期T，最后结合基于P_A的干旱事件重现期T₀，回归分析出T与T₀间关系的计算公式。选取干旱灾害影响严重的亳州市为实证区域开展应用研究，计算得到1975-2007年各场干旱事件的T₀和T以及T₀与T的经验关系式。结果表明：T比T₀更合理地反映区域农业实际受旱状况，重现期T₀和T间存在高度的相关关系，采用T的回归方程可简化计算考虑区域实际抗旱能力下的干旱事件重现期，在区域防旱减灾实践中具有推广应用价值。

English Abstract

Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption

1. Institute of Water Problems, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

2. Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, China;

3. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;

4. Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering Institute, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51579059; No. 51409002).

Received Date: 2017-03-31
Publish Date: 2017-09-25

Keywords:

Abstract: In order to research the appearance of agricultural drought under the actual water projects, the computational method for the return periods of drought events, based on the regional agricultural water consumption, is presented in this study. Through the drought index establishment of the anomalous percentages of agricultural water consumption(W_A), on the basis of drought events recognized by the drought index P_A of precipitation anomalous percentages, the drought characteristic variable of the severity and duration for drought events based on W_A were extracted. Meanwhile, according to the frequency distribution curves F_S(x) of drought severity and the frequency distribution curves F_D(x) of drought duration obtained with P_A as the drought index, the return periods T of drought events based on W_A were computed by use of the simplified method of Copula. Finally, combined with the return periods T₀ of drought events based on P_A, the formula of relationship between T and T₀ was obtained through the analysis of regression. The method was applied into Bozhou city as the exemplary region for the severest influence from the drought, and the empirical relation between T and T₀ was built as per all the drought events from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate:compared with T₀, the severity of drought events judged by T is more consistent with the reality; there is an essential correlation between T₀ and T, and the regression equation of T can be accepted as the simple estimation formula of return periods T of drought events when it comes to actual drought resistance ability of one region, and is valuable for popularized application in the process of drought mitigation and loss reduction of one region.

张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良. 基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

引用本文:

张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良. 基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

Citation:

ZHANG Yuliang, JIANG Shangming, JIN Juliang, WU Zhiyong, ZHOU Yuliang. Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

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基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

作者简介: 张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption

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基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法

doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006

作者简介: 张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

English Abstract

Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption

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目录

作者简介:
张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
金菊良,E-mail:JINJL66@126.com

作者简介:
张宇亮(1991-),男,安徽肥东人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:zhangyuliang@hhu.edu.cn