涂新军, 杜奕良, 陈晓宏, 柴苑苑, 卿颖. 滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(1): 49-58. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006
引用本文: 涂新军, 杜奕良, 陈晓宏, 柴苑苑, 卿颖. 滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计[J]. 水科学进展, 2017, 28(1): 49-58. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006
TU Xinjun, DU Yiliang, CHEN Xiaohong, CHAI Yuanyuan, QING ying. Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(1): 49-58. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006
Citation: TU Xinjun, DU Yiliang, CHEN Xiaohong, CHAI Yuanyuan, QING ying. Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2017, 28(1): 49-58. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.01.006

滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计

Modeling and design on joint distribution of precipitation and tide in the coastal city

  • 摘要: 滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害,需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例,采用年最大值法(AM)和超定量序列法(POT)两种选样方法,基于Copula方法模拟24 h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征,对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异,根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明:雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布(GNO),不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性,Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征,最优模型为Gumbel-Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值,二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期,POT选样的潮位大于AM。权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值,偏重于较高的潮位,雨量设计值较小。当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型,给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程,若选择较大的雨量设计值,则潮位值变小,反之亦然。从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑,POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全。

     

    Abstract: Instream flood in a coastal city usually occurs under the influence of heavy rain and high tidal level. Thus, modeling and design of joint distribution of precipitation and tide require increased attention. With Xixianghe River basin of Shenzhen city, Southern China, used as a case, 24-hour data of heavy rain and comparative daily high tidal level are used for two sampling methods, namely, annual maximum (AM) and peaks over threshold (POT). The joint distribution model of precipitation and tide is established by using Copula functions. In this model, the difference between the traditional and second return periods of joint distribution of precipitation and tide is analyzed. The pair values of precipitation and tide are investigated according to two optimally designed methods, namely, equalized frequency method and most-likely weight function. Results show that the generalized normal distribution (GNO) is optimally selected to model the marginal distribution of precipitation and tide, but the differences of model parameters in precipitation are remarkable. Although precipitation and tide exhibit a weak positive dependence, Archimedean Copulas can well model their joint distribution, and the Gumbel-Hougaard Copula is selected as the optimal bivariate model. According to the equalized frequency method, the pair values of precipitation and tide designed by the second return period are greater than those designed by the traditional return period, and those designed by the POT series are greater than those designed by the AM series. However, the designed values of tide level are greater when associated with lower precipitation on the basis of the most-likely weight function. Provided that the sampling method, the joint distribution model, and the type of joint return period are confirmed, a reciprocal situation for a pair of designed values of precipitation and tide is manifested for given joint return periods, that is, a greater designed value of precipitation corresponds to a smaller designed value of tide, and vice versa. In ensuring a secure engineering design against flood disasters due to heavy rain and high tidal level in the coastal city, the sampling of POT and the bivariable design of the second return period are safer than those of AM and the traditional return period, respectively.

     

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