降水空间信息的处理策略对径流预测的影响

Impact of precipitation spatial information processing strategies on runoff prediction

  • 摘要: 降水空间信息的精确提取对径流预测的精度至关重要。本文以赣江流域为研究对象,基于长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)模型,设计原始图像、小波分解、统计特征、面平均值、区域划分5种降水空间信息提取方案,研究降水空间信息不同处理策略对基于LSTM模型的径流预测性能的影响。结果表明:相较于直接使用原始图像的方案,综合运用小波分解和统计特征提取的处理方法测试期纳什效率系数分别提升了11.5%和17.9%,同时也增强了模型的稳定性和解释性;不同的区域划分方法能结合土地利用、土壤类型等下垫面因素,反映降水响应的空间差异性,展现了对各流量等级的适应能力,相较于以流域平均值作为输入的方式,能明显提高捕捉高流量和低流量特征的能力。研究表明在基于LSTM模型的降雨—径流预测模型中引入降水空间信息,可以有效改善预测效果。

     

    Abstract: Accurate extraction of spatial information on precipi tation is crucial in improving the accuracy of runoff prediction. Taking the Ganjiang River basin as a case study, this paper develops five precipitation spatial information processing schemes (i.e., raw images, wavelet decomposition, statistical features, mean areal precipitation, and regional partitioning) based on a long short-term memory model. The aim is to investigate how different approaches to capturing spatial variability in precipitation affect the performance of LSTM-based runoff prediction. The results show that, compared with the direct use of raw images, integrated methods employing wavelet decomposition and statistical feature extraction improve the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency by 11.5% and 17.9%, respectively, during the testing phase, while also enhancing model stability and interpretability. Furthermore, various regional partitioning strategies incorporating land use, soil type, and other underlying surface factors capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation response more effectively compared to approaches that use basin-wide or regional average values as inputs, demonstrating robust performance across different flow regimes and significantly improving the ability to capture both high- and low-flow conditions. The result show that incorporating precipitation spatial information into LSTM-based rainfall—runoff models can markedly enhance predictive accuracy.

     

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