基于能量解析的山洪灾害应对新范式及关键问题

New paradigm and key issues of flash flood disaster response based on energy analysis

  • 摘要: 针对基于“雨量—流量”响应关系的传统山洪预报预警体系存在的滞后性和经济壁垒问题,本文旨在从能量演化视角建立山洪灾害早期识别的新途径,将研究视角从灾害“表象”转向其能量“内核”,系统解析山洪灾害“初期势能储备—高位势能向动能初始转化—地表势能积蓄与动能汇集”的全过程演化机制。为突破“等雨而警、等雨异洪”的传统模式局限,本文明确山洪成灾过程中能量表征指标内涵界定和能量状态量化映射2个关键科学问题、山洪灾害能量演化过程观测体系和区域高分辨率连续能量场构建2项主要技术瓶颈。研究成果以期为实现山洪灾害防御从“被动响应”向“主动防御”转变提供理论基础和技术路径。

     

    Abstract: To address the issues of delays and economic barriers inherent in traditional mountain flood forecasting and early warning systems based on the rainfall–runoff response relationship, we have proposed a novel approach for the early identification of mountain flood hazards from an energy evolution perspective. By shifting the research focus from the apparent manifestations of disasters to their energy core, we systematically analyze the entire evolutionary mechanism of mountain flood hazards: “initial potential energy accumulation — initial conversion of potential energy at high positions to kinetic energy — accumulation of surface potential energy and convergence of kinetic energy”. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach, namely, “sending alerts until rain comes, generating varied floods despite similar rainfall”, we have identified two key scientific issues (defining the conceptual framework for energy characterization indicators during mountain flood disasters and quantitatively mapping energy states) and two major technical bottlenecks (establishing an observation system for mountain flood energy evolution processes and constructing regional high-resolution continuous energy fields). The findings provide a theoretical foundation and technical pathway for shifting mountain flood disaster prevention from “passive response” to “proactive defense”.

     

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