城市暴雨洪涝灾害链演变特征及减灾途径

Evolution characteristics of urban flood disasters chain and approaches for disaster mitigation

  • 摘要: 中国城市暴雨洪涝灾害已呈现南北多线并发、洪涝与台风叠加的特征,灾害传递过程的复杂性和不确定使得致灾结果具有严重性,灾害链是灾害传递过程中物质与能量的载体。按照“灾害链链生解析—灾害链演变特征—断链减灾途径”路线,开展城市暴雨洪涝灾害链传递、链式演变特征及减灾途径研究。城市暴雨洪涝灾害链的链生模式受外部破坏表现行为、系统结构形式和所处环境共同作用,按灾害特征可分为串发式、并发式和复合式;灾害链传递过程呈现同源性与共发性、累积性与放大性、多变性与复杂性的演变特征;灾害链断链途径涵盖致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体以及应急管理措施。以“郑州“7·20”暴雨灾害事件及其“地铁5号线亡人事件”为例,解析了实际降雨情景下灾害链的链生过程和断链减灾提升策略,采用灾前防控、灾中处置、灾后应急等策略对灾害链的断链减灾具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: China's urban flood disasters have been simultaneously occurring in multiple areas in both northern and southern regions and are superimposed by floods and typhoons. The complexity and uncertainty in disaster propagation have resulted in severe consequences. Disaster chains act as carriers of matter and energy during disaster propagation. Following the process of analyzing "disaster chain generation–evolutionary characteristics of disaster chains–approaches for disaster chain mitigation", research on the propagation, chain-like evolutionary characteristics, and mitigation methods of urban rainstorm and flood disaster chains has been conducted. The method of generation of urban flood disaster chains is jointly affected by external destructive behaviors, system structural forms, and the surrounding environment. On the basis of disaster characteristics, disaster chains can be categorized into serial, concurrent, and compound types. The propagation of disaster chains is characterized by homology and co-occurrence, accumulation and amplification, and variability and complexity. The methods for rupturing disaster chains involve disaster-causing factors, disaster-prone environments, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management measures. Taking the "7·20" rainstorm event in Zhengzhou and the "fatal incident on Metro Line 5" as examples, the generation of the disaster chain and strategies for breaking the chain and mitigating the disaster under the actual rainfall conditions were analyzed. Adopting measures such as predisaster prevention and control, disaster handling during an event, and postdisaster emergency response are highly important for breaking disaster chains and mitigating damage in disaster chains.

     

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