三峡水库建库前后下游区域水平衡评价与适应性调控

Water balance evaluation of downstream areas before and after the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir and adaptive regulation

  • 摘要: 本研究旨在分析三峡水库运行对下游区域水平衡的影响,提出协调工程调度与区域需求的适应性调控依据。针对社会经济用水(农业、工业、生活)与自然系统(降水、蒸发、径流)衡算的数据衔接难题,融合气象水文观测、水资源公报及多源数据产品,通过时空插补计算兼顾两类组分的水资源平衡指标。结果表明:建库前水资源平衡指标非显著下降,建库后显著上升,且年内集中指数均值下降,反映水库削峰补枯调度影响;基于指标阈值提出三级调控方案,中、低流量方案更适配防洪-供水协同,高流量方案侧重生态基流但需权衡蓄能损失;研究提出的调控方案考虑了水利工程运行与区域水资源系统的交互机制,可为优化水库调度策略、协调区域发展需求提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impacts of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) operation on the regional water balance in the downstream area and provide a basis for adaptive regulation that coordinates engineering scheduling with regional demands. To address the data linkage challenge in accounting for socio-economic water use (agricultural, domestic, industrial) and natural system components (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff), we integrated meteorological/hydrological observations, water resources bulletins, and multi-source data products, deriving water balance indices that account for both component via spatiotemporal interpolation. The results show that before the reservoir construction, the water balance indices exhibited a non-significant decline, but increased significantly afterward, accompanied by a decrease in the mean intra-annual concentration index, reflecting the impact of the TGR’s scheduling of decreasing flood discharge and increasing low flow. A three-level regulation scheme was proposed based on index thresholds: medium and low-flow schemes better align with the synergized objectives of flood control and water supply, whereas high-flow schemes prioritize ecological baseflow at the cost of potential trade-offs in stored energy loss. The proposed scheme considers the interaction mechanism between hydraulic engineering operation and the regional water resources system, offering a scientific reference for optimizing reservoir operation strategies and coordinating regional development demands.

     

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