基于离散微分动态规划和机器学习的水库群调度

Reservoir group operation based on discrete differential dynamic programming and machine learning

  • 摘要: 针对传统离散微分动态规划(DDDP)应用于水库群调度时存在的“维数灾”与计算效率瓶颈,本文提出一种基于DDDP和机器学习的水库群调度方法(IDDDP)。该方法采用基于注意力机制的双向长短期记忆网络,建立“入库流量-时段初末水位”与水库出力之间的直接映射关系,以替代传统递推计算,从而大幅降低计算负担。以乌江流域梯级水库群为例,通过设置不同离散精度与系统规模,开展发电调度与电网调峰2类情景的对比试验。结果表明:IDDDP在发电量、负荷率等关键调度指标上与DDDP结果高度一致,相对偏差均控制在工程允许范围内,计算耗时降低1~2个数量级;在丰、枯典型水文年型下亦保持稳定性能。该方法在保证精度的同时显著提升了计算效率,为大规模水库群优化调度提供了可靠且高效的新途径。

     

    Abstract: To address the "curse of dimensionality" and computational efficiency bottlenecks associated with applying traditional Discrete Differential Dynamic Programming (DDDP) to reservoir group operation, this paper proposes an improved method (IDDDP) that integrates DDDP with machine learning. This method employs a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network with an attention mechanism to establish a direct mapping relationship between "inflow-initial/final water level" and reservoir power output, replacing the traditional recursive calculations and thereby significantly reducing the computational burden. Taking the cascade reservoir system in the Wujiang River basin as a case study, comparative experiments were conducted for two typical scenarios—power generation scheduling and grid peak-shaving—under varying discretization precision and system scales. The results indicate that the scheduling schemes obtained by IDDDP are highly consistent with DDDP results in key performance indicators such as power generation and load rate, with relative deviations kept within an allowable engineering range. The computational time is reduced by one to two orders of magnitude, and the method maintains stable performance under both wet and dry typical hydrological year types. The proposed method significantly enhances computational efficiency while ensuring scheduling accuracy, providing a reliable and efficient new approach for the optimal operation of large-scale reservoir groups.

     

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