水网建设背景下经济社会需水预测的关键科学问题与研究方向

Key scientific issues and research directions for forecasting economic and social water demand in the context of national water network construction

  • 摘要: 准确可信的经济社会需水预测是国家水网工程规划建设的重要基础。当前,中国经济社会需水预测面临计算误差偏大、未来演变态势缺少共识等挑战,其深层原因在于已有研究对经济社会需水预测存在的现实挑战、需要突破的关键科学问题以及未来研究的发力重点认识不清。本文分析了经济社会需水预测存在的多要素耦合复杂性、政策干预波动性、计算方法主观性、长周期预测局限性及“测不准现象”等5个方面制约,讨论了经济社会需水预测需要回答的三大科学问题,并基于国家水网规划建设的实践需求,梳理提出了水资源-经济社会协同演变机制、生产侧-消费侧用水需求交互效应、预测技术方法集成和中长期用水需求测算及其不确定性管理等4个重点研究方向。研究成果可为中国水资源管理决策及国家水网工程规划建设提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of economic and social water demand is a solid foundation for planning and constructing national water network projects. Current forecasting practice for economic and social water demand in China faces substantial challenges such as large computational errors and a lack of consensus about future trends. These difficulties stem from the limited recognition of the real obstacles in economic and social water demand forecasting, unresolved scientific questions, and unclear research priorities. This paper identifies five constraints: the complexity of multifactor coupling, the volatility of policy interventions, the subjectivity of calculation methods, the limitations of long-period forecasting, and the phenomenon of uncertainty. Then, it discusses three major scientific questions that must be resolved in economic and social water demand forecasting. Finally, driven by the practical needs of national water network planning and construction, this paper proposes four key research directions: the co-evolution mechanism between water resources and the economy and society system, interactive effects of water demand on the production and consumption sides, integration of forecasting techniques and methods, and estimation of medium- and long-term water demand along with uncertainty management. These findings provide theoretical support for decision-making in water resource management of China and for planning and constructing national water network projects.

     

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