城市小流域暴雨洪水响应本构关系

Constitutive relationship of basin-scale rainfall-flood response in an urbanized watershed

  • 摘要: 降雨时空特征对洪水响应具有重要影响,为了探究城市化小流域暴雨洪水响应规律,在南京市九乡河流域建立分布式水文模型GSSHA,通过随机暴雨移置生成多场次降雨过程,模拟不同下垫面情景下洪水响应过程;利用可解释机器学习方法识别致洪暴雨关键特征因子,以此为基础构建流域尺度暴雨洪水响应本构关系模型。研究表明:GSSHA能准确模拟九乡河流域的产汇流过程;暴雨时空特征是控制流域洪水响应的关键因素,城市扩张减弱了洪水响应对暴雨时空结构特征的敏感程度;本构关系模型为城市小流域暴雨洪水响应规律提供了数学表达,对洪峰量级预测的平均相对误差约为0.154,预测精度高,可为城市洪涝高效预警提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Spatial and temporal rainfall characteristics have an important impact on flood response in urban areas. To explore the characteristics of flood response in an urbanized watershed, a distributed hydrological model (GSSHA) was constructed in the Jiuxiang River basin, Nanjing, China. Using the stochastic storm transposition method, a large set of rainfall processes was generated and used to simulate flood responses under different underlying surface scenarios. By employing machine learning approach to identify key spatial-temporal storm characteristics, a basin-scale flood response constitutive relationship was identified. GSSHA accurately simulated the characteristics of the flood response in the Jiuxiang River basin, with the spatiotemporal properties of flood-producing storms being crucial in the flood response. Urbanization weakened the dependence of the flood response on storm characteristics. The basin-scale constitutive relationship, with its high prediction accuracy (average relative error of approximately 0.154), provides a mathematical expression for understanding flood response in a small urban watershed. These insights will offer scientific supports for efficient flood prediction and forecasting in urban areas.

     

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