渭河流域骤旱事件时空特征及气候驱动因素

Spatiotemporal characteristics and climatic drivers of flash drought events in the Weihe River Basin*

  • 摘要: 为厘清渭河流域骤旱事件的演变规律及气候驱动因素,基于ERA5-Land土壤湿度与气象数据,采用三维聚类方法识别渭河流域骤旱事件,系统分析其时空演变特征,结合主成分分析解析主导气候因素。结果表明:①2000—2024年渭河流域共识别出骤旱事件68次,约2.72次/a,平均持续时间约36.5d/次,其中泾河流域南部骤旱事件持续时间较长(50~90d),易发生大范围、高强度事件;②骤旱事件整体向西北偏西、东南偏东和东北偏东方向迁移,分别发生12、10和9次,在西南偏南方向上事件的迁移距离、面积和严重度最大;③热力-大气蒸散需求(PC1)和水分供给(PC2)是影响骤旱的第一和第二主成分,分别解释了总方差的63.2%和16.4%,骤旱期间PC1得分显著升高(6.95),PC2得分明显降低(− 1.52)。研究表明,渭河流域骤旱事件是在强烈的热力-蒸散需求主导下叠加水分亏缺共同作用形成的。研究结果可为渭河流域骤旱监测预警与风险管理提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To clarify the evolution and climatic drivers of flash drought events in the Weihe River Basin, flash droughts were identified using a three-dimensional clustering method based on ERA5-Land soil moisture and meteorological data. Spatiotemporal characteristics were systematically analyzed, and the dominant climatic drivers were examined using principal component analysis. Results showed the following: ① From 2000 to 2024, 68 flash drought events were identified, with an average frequency of approximately 2.72 events per year and an average duration of 36.5 d per event. Events in the southern Jinghe River Basin lasted longer (50—90 d) and were more likely to develop into large-scale, high-intensity events. ② Flash droughts mainly migrated toward the west-northwest, east-southeast, and east-northeast (12, 10, and 9 events, respectively). Their migration distance, affected area, and severity were greatest toward the south-southwest. ③ The thermal–atmospheric evaporative demand factor and water supply factor were the first and second principal components, PC1 and PC2, influencing flash droughts, explaining 63.2% and 16.4% of the total variance, respectively. During flash drought periods, PC1 scores increased significantly (+6.95), whereas PC2 scores decreased markedly (−1.52). These findings indicate that flash drought events in the Weihe River Basin develop primarily under enhanced thermal–atmospheric evaporative demand, compounded by water supply deficits. Overall, the results provide a scientific basis for flash drought monitoring, early warning, and risk management in the Weihe River Basin.

     

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