耦合深度学习与水文模型的喀斯特地区径流模拟方法

Runoff simulation in Karst regions by integrating deep learning with physically-based hydrological models

  • 摘要: 喀斯特地区水循环机制复杂,地质资料获取难度较大,如何进一步提升水文模型在该地区的径流模拟表现是亟待解决的研究难点之一。通过将改进后的EXP-HYDRO模型、双层南科院水文所模型与循环神经网络算法相耦合,建立物理机制与人工智能算法深度耦合的水文模型,并在长江中游南阳河流域和乌江中游野纪河流域2个喀斯特区域进行模拟验证。结果表明,建立的耦合水文模型能够显著提升喀斯特地区日径流过程模拟精度,相比于水文模型,耦合模型在南阳河流域与野纪河流域的纳什效率系数分别最高提升19.7%与37.1%。同时由于对物理机制的学习,耦合模型也表现出比单纯数据驱动方法更好的模拟精度,说明通过合理选择和学习不同的物理机制,可以有效提升人工智能模型的综合预测性能。

     

    Abstract: The water cycle mechanism of karst regions is complex, posing a significant challenge to the collection of geologic data. Thus, further improvement of the runoff simulation performance of hydrological models in these regions is a research challenge that requires attention. By coupling an improved EXP-HYDRO model, a two-layer NRIHM model, and a recurrent neural network algorithm, a hydrological model was developed that integrates the physical mechanisms and artificial intelligence (AI). Simulation and validation of the model were performed for two karst regions: the Nanyang River basin in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yeji River basin in the middle reaches of the Wujiang River. The findings suggest that the coupled hydrological model can significantly improve the simulation accuracy of the daily runoff process in karst areas. Compared with conventional hydrological models, the coupled model can improve the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency by approximately 19.7% in the Nanyang River basin and 37.1% in the Yeji River basin. Moreover, owing to the learning of physical mechanisms, the coupled model exhibits better simulation accuracy than purely data-driven approaches, suggesting that the comprehensive prediction performance of AI models can be effectively improved by properly selecting and learning different physical mechanisms.

     

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