城市洪涝灾害应对韧性精细化评估

A refined assessment of urban flood resilience

  • 摘要: 开展洪涝灾害应对韧性的精细化评估对于指导韧性城市建设具有重要意义。基于韧性“4R”理论(鲁棒性、冗余性、智慧性、恢复性),构建涵盖自然与社会维度的城市洪涝灾害应对韧性评价指标体系,采用水文水动力模拟、洪涝风险评估、洪涝损失评估及空间可达性分析等技术,在杭州运西平原开展实例研究,对比南排深隧工程实施对于区域韧性建设的提升效果,通过XGBoost算法分析各类影响因素对城市洪涝灾害应对韧性的相对贡献。结果表明:洪涝灾害应对韧性在时空上均呈现显著差异,洪峰时段韧性快速下降,随后经历波动低谷并逐步恢复,体现“先降后升”的典型动态响应过程;南排深隧工程可显著提升区域整体韧性,高韧性(IV级和V级)区域比例由33.5%提升至49.7%,且系统承灾能力与恢复效率均明显增强;自然因素对洪涝风险的总体贡献率为75.44%,社会因素为24.56%,在所有成因指标中,积水深度、积水持续时间、排水管网密度和降雨强度为主导因子。本研究为城市洪涝灾害应对韧性的精细化描述提供了新方法,提高了韧性评估的空间粒度,可为城市洪涝灾害综合应对能力的提升提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Refined assessment of urban flood resilience is of great significance for guiding the construction of resilient cities. Based on the “4R” resilience theory (robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity), this study establishes an evaluation index system of urban flood resilience that integrates both natural and social dimensions. By coupling hydrological–hydrodynamic simulation, flood risk assessment, flood loss estimation, and spatial accessibility analysis, an empirical study was conducted in the Yunxi Plain of Hangzhou. The impact of the South Drainage Deep Tunnel project on resilience enhancement was also examined, and the relative contributions of various influencing factors to urban flood resilience scores were revealed using the XGBoost algorithm. The results show that urban flood resilience exhibits significant spatiotemporal variability: resilience declines rapidly during the flood peak, followed by a fluctuating low stage and gradual recovery, presenting a typical “decline–recovery” dynamic response process. The deep tunnel project substantially improves regional resilience, increasing the proportion of high-resilience areas (Grades IV and V) from 33.5% to 49.7%, and enhancing both disaster-bearing capacity and recovery efficiency. Attribution analysis shows that natural factors contribute 75.44% to overall flood risk, while social factors account for 24.56%, with inundation depth, inundation duration, drainage pipe density, and rainfall intensity identified as dominant drivers. This study provides a refined methodological framework for characterizing urban flood resilience, improves the spatial resolution of resilience assessment, and offers technical support for enhancing integrated urban flood disaster response capability.

     

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