降水空间聚集度指标的适用性评价

Evaluating the applicability of spatial precipitation concentration metrics

  • 摘要: 本文采用受控数值情景试验和ERA5-Land月降水数据在全球陆地和长江流域尺度检验了变异系数(CV)、基尼系数(G)、泰尔指数(T)和赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(IHH)在降水聚集度研究中的适用性。结果表明:4个指标在降水总量同比例变化时均保持稳定,但对干湿极化和湿区收缩的响应强度不同;泰尔指数对干湿极化响应较强,适合识别尾部降水份额变化;IHH对湿区收缩响应较强,适合识别降水向少数区域集中的过程;CVG整体响应较为稳定;受控数值试验中“干湿极化”机制在ERA5-Land月降水场中可进一步细分为“单侧湿尾增强”与“干湿双尾分化”2类亚机制,其中CV对单侧湿尾增强响应更强,泰尔指数在干湿双尾分化明显时更具优势。长江流域检验与全球陆地尺度结果总体一致。研究结果可为降水聚集度指标选用提供方法依据。

     

    Abstract: This study evaluates the applicability of four metrics for quantifying the spatial concentration of precipitation, namely the coefficient of variation (CV), Gini coefficient (G), Theil index (T), and Herfindahl-Hirschman index (IHH). The performance of these metrics is examined using controlled numerical experiments and ERA5-Land monthly precipitation datasets at global land areas and the Yangtze River basin. The results indicate that all four metrics are robust to proportional variations in total precipitation, yet they exhibit distinct responses to dry-wet polarization and precipitation footprint contraction. The Theil index shows higher sensitivity to dry-wet polarization, rendering it suitable for identifying variations in the tails of precipitation distribution. By contrast, the IHH is more responsive to footprint contraction and thus effective in identifying changes in precipitation-concentrating regions. Both the CV and G exhibit relatively stable performance across all conditions. Controlled numerical experiments based on ERA5-Land monthly precipitation fields further suggest that dry-wet polarization can be decomposed into two sub-mechanisms: one-sided enhancement of wet-tails and two-sided dry-wet differentiation. The CV is more sensitive to one-sided wet-tail enhancement, while the Theil index is more responsive to two-sided dry-wet differentiation. Results for the Yangtze River basin are broadly consistent with those obtained for global land areas. These findings provide a methodological basis for selecting appropriate metrics in precipitation-concentration-related studies.

     

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