无资料库区入库洪水预报的多尺度嵌套TOKASIDE模型

Reservoir inflow flood forecasting of TOKASIDE model based on spatially multi-scale nested simulation

  • 摘要: 针对入库站以下无资料库区洪水预报因干支流面积悬殊引起的尺度效应与计算精度难题,提出一种基于TOKASIDE模型的空间多尺度嵌套预报方法,在岳城水库库区验证应用。通过解析有资料流域模型模拟的尺度效应,基于分形与地貌学理论建立参数跨尺度转换关系,构建一套TOKASIDE模型空间多尺度嵌套模拟架构。结果表明:①尺度效应方面模型模拟流量在100~500 m区间随分辨率降低而减小,在600~2000 m区间则增大。②对地表与河道糙率参数尺度转换,能降低不同分辨率模型间的系统性偏差。③岳城水库库区的应用表明,多尺度方案对2场历史洪水的模拟纳什效率系数均超过0.7,且洪峰误差较单一分辨率模拟显著降低约27%。本文提出的研究方法可解决无资料库区参数确定与尺度效应的问题,有效提升无资料库区洪水预报的精度与可靠性,可为水库防洪调度提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Flood forecasting in ungauged reservoirs downstream of inflow control stations is hindered by scale effects and numerical inaccuracies arising from large disparities between main stem and tributary drainage areas. To address these issues, a spatial multi-scale nested simulation method based on the TOpographic Kinematic Approximation and Saturation-Infiltration Double Excess (TOKASIDE ) model was developed and verified in the Yuecheng Reservoir Basin. Scale effects in gauged basin were analyzed and cross-scale parameter transformation relationships derived from fractal and geomorphic theories were established, forming a spatial multiscale-nested TOKASIDE framework. The results show that: ① in terms of scale effects, simulated discharge varies systematically with resolution, decreasing in the 100—500 m range and increasing in the 600—2000 m range; ② applying scale transformations to the surface and channel roughness reduce systematic bias across resolutions; and ③ the application to the Yuecheng Reservoir basin indicates that, for two historical flood events, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) values of the multiscale scheme are both greater than 0.7, and the peak discharge error is reduced by approximately 27% compared with single-resolution (1000 m) simulation. The proposed method resolves parameterization and scale effects in ungauged reservoir reaches, significantly improving accuracy and reliability, while providing technical support for reservoir flood-control operations.

     

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