基于复杂网络的山地型城市洪涝灾害链风险评估以北京市门头沟区为例

Risk assessment of flooding disaster chains in mountainous cities based on complex network: take Mentougou District, Beijing as an example

  • 摘要: 揭示山地型城市洪涝灾害链的时空演变机制,解析灾害链的级联传递效应,量化灾害链的风险水平,可为山地型区域灾害链断链减灾提供技术支撑。以北京市门头沟区历史洪涝灾害和典型“23.7”特大暴雨事件为例,建立山地型区域洪涝灾害链风险评估模型,厘清灾害链时空演变关系,评估灾害链风险大小,辨析洪涝灾害链和承灾系统的鲁棒性,提出基于节点防护与重要路径阻断的工程措施、基于灾害监测模拟与避险救援的非工程措施。结果表明:门头沟区洪涝灾害链中城市洪涝(C11)和交通中断(E13)为关键节点,以经济财产损失(G13)为核心的边是灾害链系统脆弱路径,且是风险爆发的关键出口;灾害链的综合风险值23.909,其中节点风险贡献80.4%;在采取防灾措施情况下,承灾系统鲁棒性增强,灾害链风险降低,二者呈现负相关关系。借助复杂网络模型厘清山地型城市洪涝灾害链的复杂性,识别关键节点和脆弱边,有助于制定针对性的灾害防控策略和措施。

     

    Abstract: Revealing the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of flooding disaster chains in mountainous cities, analyzing the cascading transmission effects of such chains, and quantifying the risk level of disaster chains can provide technical support for chain-breaking disaster mitigation in mountainous regions. Taking historical flooding disasters and the typical “23.7” extreme rainstorm event in Mentougou District, Beijing as an example, this study establishes a risk assessment model for flooding disaster chains in mountainous regions, clarifies the spatio-temporal evolution relationships of these chains, evaluates the risk magnitude of the disaster chains, distinguishes the robustness of flooding disaster chains and the disaster-bearing system, and proposes engineering measures based on node protection and critical path blocking, as well as non-engineering measures based on disaster monitoring, simulation, and emergency evacuation and rescue. The results show that in the flooding disaster chain of Mentougou District, urban flooding (C11) and traffic disruption (E13) are key nodes, and the edge centered on economic property loss (G13) is the vulnerable path of the disaster chain system and the key outlet for risk outbreak; the comprehensive risk value of the disaster chain is 23.909, with node risk contributing 80.4%. When disaster prevention measures are implemented, the robustness of the disaster-bearing system is enhanced, and the disaster chain risk decreases, showing a negative correlation between the two. Using complex network models to clarify the complexity of flooding disaster chains in mountainous cities and to identify key nodes and vulnerable edges helps in formulating targeted disaster prevention and control strategies and measures.

     

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