变化环境下中国洪涝灾害新特征及科技需求

New flood characteristics and technological needs in China under a changing environment

  • 摘要: 受特殊地理与季风气候影响,中国洪涝灾害频发,是世界上洪涝灾害最严重的国家之一,防洪减灾是长期艰巨任务。从历史重大洪涝事件到近年极端暴雨洪水,洪涝灾害始终威胁着人民生命财产安全与社会经济发展。经过数十年治理,中国已建成世界规模最大的防洪工程体系,“四预”能力与数字孪生水利建设持续提升,防洪减灾成效显著,因洪涝死亡人数和直接经济损失占GDP比例均呈稳步下降趋势。然而,在全球气候变化与人类活动双重驱动下,中国洪涝灾害呈现新特征:气候变暖速率高于全球平均,极端暴雨尤其是短历时强降雨趋多趋强,降雨空间分布北移;海平面波动性上升加剧沿海地区防洪压力;下垫面改变导致水文过程非平稳性增强;城市洪涝、台风“北漂”及中小河流灾害成为防御重点,脆弱地区风险进一步增加。为应对变化环境下的洪涝新挑战,需以“两个坚持、三个转变”理念为指导,推动防洪减灾科技创新,构建“天空地”一体化雨水情监测体系,融合AI与大数据技术提升监测预警精度;推动洪水预报方法在模型结构、数据基础、业务内涵、预报方式、参数确定、技术范式及不确定性表达等方面创新与转变,从集总式到分布式模型、单一源到多源数据融合、确定性到概率性预报等,通过数字孪生流域实现全流域状态感知与智能推演,支撑防汛减灾向风险决策升级,全面提升洪涝灾害防御能力。

     

    Abstract: China experiences frequent flooding due to its unique geographical and monsoon climate conditions, making it one of the most flood-prone countries in the world. This creates ongoing challenges for flood control and disaster reduction. Flood events, from historical catastrophes to recent extreme rainstorms, have persistently threatened human lives, property security, and socio-economic development. After decades of management efforts, China has established the world’s largest flood-control engineering system. The capabilities of “forecasting, pre-warning, pre-dispatching, and pre-arranged planning” and the construction of digital-twin water systems have been continuously improved, yielding remarkable achievements in flood control and disaster reduction. Both the number of flood-related fatalities and the share of direct economic losses in GDP have steadily declined. However, flood disasters in China exhibit distinct new characteristics caused by global climate change and intensified human activities. For example, the rate of warming in China exceeds the global average, leading to more frequent and intense extreme rainfall, with a northward shift in rainfall pattern; fluctuating sea-level rise intensifies flood risk in coastal areas; changes in land surfaces have further complicated hydrological processes; urban flooding, northward-moving typhoons, and disasters in small and medium-sized rivers have become key defense priorities, particularly in vulnerable regions. To address the new challenges of flooding under a changing environment, guided by the concept of “Two Upholds and Three Transformations”, it is necessary to promote scientific and technological innovation in flood control and disaster reduction, establish an integrated “space-sky-ground” monitoring system for rainfall and flooding, and improve the accuracy of monitoring and early-warning by integrating artificial intelligence and big-data technologies. Improvements in flood forecasting methods should concentrate on several key areas: model structure, data foundation, operational content, forecasting technologies, parameter determination, technical paradigms, and uncertainty representation. Additionally, there should be a shift from lumped to distributed models, from single-source to multi-source data fusion, and from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting. Finally, full-basin state awareness and intelligent deduction can be realized through digital-twin river basins, supporting the upgrading of flood control and disaster reduction toward risk-based decision-making and comprehensively enhancing flood disaster prevention capabilities.

     

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