高原寒区水文过程演变、模拟与展望

Evolution, modeling, and prospects of hydrological processes in alpine cold regions

  • 摘要: 高原寒区对全球变暖响应敏感,气候变化下其冰川、积雪、冻土与植被正经历快速变化。本文系统梳理了21世纪以来高原寒区水文过程演变与模拟的研究进展。综述表明:气候变暖驱动冰冻圈与植被协同变化,冰川加速消融、积雪期缩短、多年冻土退化、地表-地下水连通性增强,植被绿化与灌木扩张通过改变积雪、蒸散发和冻土对水循环产生复杂影响;水文情势深刻重塑,融雪径流峰值提前,冻土融化增加枯季基流,径流总量空间分异显著,内流区湖泊在净降水增加主导下持续扩张;水文模型正向多圈层、能量-水量耦合发展,但在冻土-地下水交换、植被-水文耦合机理上仍存在认知瓶颈。未来研究需重点突破:①在气候变化与冰川冻土响应方面,建立多圈层协同观测体系,深化区域分异机制,强化临界阈值评估;②在高原寒区水文情势变化方面,构建高原寒区水文-生态-社会评估框架,建立极端事件预警体系;③在高原寒区水文机理模型方面,深化冻土水热耦合参数化方案,改进多圈层能量-水分耦合描述,提升多尺度动态模拟能力。

     

    Abstract: High-altitude cold regions are susceptible to global warming, experiencing rapid changes in glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and vegetation. This paper systematically reviews research progress over the past two decades on the evolution and simulation of hydrological processes in these high-altitude cold regions. The review indicates that: Climate warming drives synergistic changes in the cryosphere and vegetation, accelerating glacier melt, shortening snow cover duration, degrading permafrost, and enhancing surface-groundwater connectivity. Vegetation greening and shrub expansion exert complex influences on the water cycle by altering snow accumulation, evapotranspiration, and permafrost conditions; Hydrological regimes are profoundly reshaped, with snowmelt runoff peaks generally occurring earlier, permafrost thaw raising baseflow during dry seasons, significant spatial variations in total runoff, and endorheic basin lakes expanding under the dominance of net precipitation; Hydrological models are evolving towards multi-sphere, energy-water coupled frameworks, though bottlenecks remain in representing permafrost-groundwater interactions and vegetation-hydrology coupling mechanisms. Future research should prioritize breakthroughs in the following areas: ① Climate change and cryosphere response: Establishing a multi-sphere synergistic observation system, deepening the understanding of regional heterogeneity mechanisms, and strengthening the assessment of critical thresholds. ② Hydrological regime changes: Constructing a comprehensive hydro-eco-social assessment framework for high-altitude regions and establishing an early warning system for extreme events. ③ Hydrological process modeling: Deepening the parameterization of hydrothermal coupling in permafrost, improving the representation of multi-sphere energy-water coupling, and developing multi-scale dynamic simulation capabilities.

     

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