基于可解释多源数据特征融合的深度学习集合径流预测

Deep learning ensemble streamflow prediction based on explainable multi-source data feature fusion

  • 摘要: 准确的径流预测是水资源管理与洪涝预警的核心,但径流过程的高度非线性给传统模型带来了挑战,且存在时空特征融合不足与可解释性欠缺等问题。本文融合遥感、气象等24类多源异构数据,综合考量人类活动与气候变化的影响,构建高精度、可解释的Transformer-KAN-LEC(TKL)深度学习集合径流预测模型。以嘉陵江流域11个站点的日径流预测为例开展研究,结果表明:TKL模型纳什效率系数均大于0.95,均方根误差较传统模型降低40%~80%,区间预测与极端事件预测性能均优于传统模型;可解释性分析显示,上游径流量、降水累积效应为关键影响因子。本文提出的“数据-模型-解释”系统性框架,可为大流域水资源管理与洪涝预警提供支持。

     

    Abstract: Accurate streamflow prediction holds pivotal implications for water resources management and flood early warning. Nonetheless, the highly nonlinear nature of streamflow processes poses significant challenges to conventional models, which also demonstrate insufficient integration of spatiotemporal features and deficiency of interpretability. In this study, 24 types of multi-source heterogeneous data underwent systematic investigation, comprising remote sensing and meteorological data. Aside from that, the impacts of human activities and climate change were comprehensively considered to construct a high-precision and interpretable Transformer-KAN-LEC (TKL) deep learning ensemble streamflow prediction model. Taking daily streamflow prediction at 11 stations in the Jialing River Basin as a case study, the experimental findings illustrate that: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS) of the TKL model is all greater than 0.95, the root mean square error (ERMS) is reduced by 40%—80% in contrast to traditional models, and both the interval prediction and extreme event prediction performances are superior to traditional models. Interpretability analysis reveals that upstream streamflow and cumulative precipitation effects are the dominant influencing factors. The "data-model-interpretation" systematic framework recommended in this paper can offer adequate and continuous support for water resources management and precise flood early warning in large basins.

     

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