三峡库区水沙异步驱动机制

Factors driving water-sediment asynchrony in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

  • 摘要: 洪水期水沙异步是影响三峡水库淤积分布与排沙调度优化的关键过程,但其主控因子时空演变规律及核心驱动机制尚不清晰。基于2003—2020年三峡水库主要水文站实测资料,采用Spearman相关分析、随机森林模型与半理论半经验推导方法,解析三峡库区水沙异步调整的驱动机制。研究表明:从库尾清溪场站至坝前庙河站,入库异步的影响沿程减弱,而洪峰流量等水动力因子和坝前水位边界条件的作用逐渐增强;金沙江下游梯级水库群蓄水后,入库异步对库区中上游的控制作用减弱,库区水动力和坝前水位的影响在近坝段增强;沙峰含沙量并非直接驱动因子,而是通过影响沙峰传播完整性间接发挥作用;从运动学机制上,库区水沙异步沿程变化源于“洪峰沙峰传输速度差”与“入库异步的持续影响”双核驱动,基于此构建的水沙异步时长经验关系,在入库沙峰含沙量大于2 kg/m3情景下,能合理重现沿程水沙异步变化规律(坝前庙河站拟合精度R2=0.74),在一定程度上验证了双核驱动机制的合理性。本研究深化了对大型水库水沙异步输移规律及驱动机制的认知,可为三峡水库沙峰排沙调度优化提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: The asynchrony between water flow and sediment transport during the flood season in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is known to influence the sediment deposition distribution and sediment discharge operations in this region. The spatiotemporal evolution of the dominant controlling factors and the underlying mechanisms driving this asynchrony remain inadequately understood. Based on hydrological data measured from 2003 to 2020 at major stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, in this study, we employed Spearman correlation analysis, random forest modeling, and semi-theoretical semi-empirical derivation to investigate the mechanisms driving water–sediment asynchrony in the region. The results indicated that from the upstream Qingxichang station to the dam-front Miaohe station, the dominant influence of inflow asynchrony decreased, while the effects of hydrodynamic factors (e.g., peak discharge) and boundary conditions (e.g., forewater level) increased progressively along the reservoir. Following the impoundment of the cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River, the effect of inflow asynchrony decreased in the upper and middle sections of the reservoir, and the influences of the forewater level and hydrodynamic conditions enhanced in the dam–proximal zone. Note that sediment peak concentration is not a direct driving factor but indirectly affects water–sediment asynchrony by influencing the completeness of sediment peak propagation. From a kinematic perspective, the longitudinal variation in water–sediment asynchrony is driven by a dual-core mechanism: the difference in the propagation velocities between the flood and sediment peaks and the persistent effect of inflow asynchrony. This study presents the empirical relationship for asynchrony duration based on this mechanism, while effectively reproducing the longitudinal patterns of water–sediment asynchrony (R2 = 0.74 at Miaohe station) for conditions wherein the inflow sediment peak concentration exceeded 2 kg/m3, thereby validating the rationality of the dual-core driving mechanism. Overall, this study advances the understanding of water–sediment asynchrony and its underlying mechanisms within the context of large reservoirs; our findings provide a scientific basis for effectively implementing sediment flushing operations in the Three Gorges Reservoir.

     

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