融合水动力学机理的复杂河道水位—流量关系泛化模型

Generalized modeling of complex river stage-discharge relations fusing hydrodynamic mechanisms

  • 摘要: 针对中下游河道受洪水涨落、回水及河床冲淤等因素影响导致水位—流量关系呈现复杂非线性,而传统数据驱动模型缺乏物理机制约束、泛化能力弱的问题,本文提出一种融合水动力学机理的泛化建模方法。该方法基于圣维南方程组,提取水位(Z)、水位及流量的时间变化率(dZ/dt,dQ/dt)与弗劳德数(Fr)构建物理输入特征集,耦合BP神经网络建立代理模型。选取中国七大流域中涵盖多种复杂水力机制的9个代表性断面进行系统评估。结果表明:Fr对模型精度提升作用显著,能够有效捕捉复杂水流动力特征,各断面的纳什效率系数均接近1;dZ/dt,dQ/dt对性能的改善具有站点依赖性,仅在铁岭站等深槽断面表现突出,而在其他断面受微分数据噪声影响收益有限。本文构建的物理特征集能够精准刻画不同流域复杂水位—流量关系,突破了传统水动力模型因下游边界未知而难以预报的瓶颈,可为变化环境下实时洪水预报及数字孪生应用提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the complex multi-valuedness of stage-discharge relationships in mid-lower river reaches and the weak generalizability of traditional data-driven models, this paper proposes a generalized modeling approach integrating hydrodynamic mechanisms. Based on the Saint-Venant equations, a physical feature set comprising water level (Z), temporal rates of change (dZ/dt, dQ/dt), and Froude number (Fr) is coupled with a BP neural network. Nine representative cross-sections across China's seven major river basins are selected for evaluation. Results show that Fr significantly enhances the capture of complex hydrodynamic features, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies (ENS) approaching 1. However, improvements from dZ/dt and dQ/dt are site-dependent, excelling in deep-channel sections but limited elsewhere by data noise. The proposed framework demonstrates robust cross-basin universality, effectively overcoming the downstream boundary limitations of traditional models and providing reliable support for real-time flood forecasting and digital twin applications.

     

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