骤发干旱对全球农业基地粮食产量的影响

Impacts of flash droughts on crop yields across global agricultural regions

  • 摘要: 现有干旱对农业的研究多聚焦于传统干旱,鲜有从骤发干旱的角度开展评估,且忽视了作物生长不同阶段和不同灌溉模式对骤旱响应的差异性。针对上述问题,结合全球作物产量、作物物候、雨养与灌溉系统以及土壤水分等多源数据,构建考虑旱情开始速度的骤旱识别方法,提取全球骤旱事件,系统评估全球主要农业区骤发干旱对作物的影响。结果表明:①1940—2022年全球骤发干旱事件显著增加,且干旱开始阶段历时呈现加快趋势;②从作物生长阶段来看,在作物出苗至乳熟阶段面临更高的骤旱风险;③在不同的灌溉模式下,骤旱导致的水资源短缺对雨养农业区的影响最为显著,而地下水灌溉作物面临骤旱影响时展现出更好的抵抗性。本研究为全球粮食安全的风险防控提供了一定参考。

     

    Abstract: Recent research on agricultural drought mainly focuses on traditional drought events, with limited assessments of flash droughts. Moreover, existing studies often neglect the differential responses of crops to flash droughts across various growth stages and irrigation regimes. To address these gaps, multisource datasets, including global crop yield data, phenological data, rain-fed and irrigated system data, and soil moisture data, were integrated to develop a flash drought identification method that accounts for the drought onset speed. Via the use of this approach, we extracted global flash drought events and systematically evaluated their impacts on crops in major agricultural regions worldwide. The results demonstrated that:① Global flash drought events increased significantly from 1940 to 2022, with a notable increase in drought onset rates. ② Crops exhibited increased vulnerability to flash droughts at the emergence to milk-ripe growth stages. ③ Among the different irrigation systems, rain-fed agricultural areas were most severely affected by water scarcity induced by flash droughts, whereas groundwater-irrigated crops demonstrated superior resilience. This study provides valuable insights for risk prevention and control to ensure global food security.

     

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