考虑雨量站空间关系的深度学习洪水过程预报模型

Deep learning flood process forecasting model considering spatial relationship of rainfall stations

  • 摘要: 降雨时空异质性是影响洪水预报精度的关键因素之一。本文提出一种融合降雨空间特征与洪水过程特征的深度学习框架,在耦合图卷积神经网络(GCN)和长短时记忆网络(LSTM)的基础上,采用以雨量站为节点的邻接矩阵改进LSTM输入模块,引入径流过程矢量化方法(RPV),构建GCN-RPV-LSTM洪水过程预报模型。选取贾鲁河中牟站控制流域34场实测降雨-径流资料对模型训练和验证,并将预报结果与GCN-LSTM和RPV-LSTM模型进行对比研究。结果表明:①GCN-RPV-LSTM模型洪水预报精度最优,6 h预见期下,验证期ENS较2种对比模型分别提高0.014和0.076;②该模型对双峰型洪水的预报结果较准确,ENS始终保持0.9以上,在高流量洪水预报中性能最优;③该模型具有更强的鲁棒性,但存在洪峰低估和峰现时间延后现象。未来可进一步改进模型结构,为流域防洪安全提供科学的决策依据。

     

    Abstract: The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall is one of the key factors affecting the accuracy of flood forecasting. In this study, a deep learning framework combining rainfall spatial features and flood process features is proposed. Based on the coupled graph convolutional neural network (GCN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM), the adjacency matrix with rainfall stations as nodes is used to improve the LSTM input module, and the runoff process vectorization method (RPV) is introduced to construct the GCN-RPV-LSTM flood process forecasting model. The model was trained and validated by 34 measured rainfall-runoff data in the the control basin of Jialu River at Zhongmou station, and the results were compared with GCN-LSTM and RPV-LSTM models. The results show that: ① The GCN-RPV-LSTM model has the best flood forecasting accuracy. Under the lead time of 6h, the Nash efficiency coefficient (ENS) in the validation period is 0.014 and 0.076 higher than that of the two comparison models, respectively. ② The model is more accurate for the forecasting of bimodal floods, and the ENS is above 0.9. It also has significant performance advantages in high-flow flood forecasting. ③ The model has stronger robustness, but there are underestimation of flood peak and delay of peak time. In the future, the model structure can be further improved to provide scientific decision-making basis for flood control safety of the basin.

     

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