物理引导深度学习预测数据稀缺流域径流时空分布

Research on physically guided deep learning for spatiotemporal streamflow prediction in data-scarce river basins

  • 摘要: 高精度径流预测是水资源管理与防洪减灾的基础。然而,在数据稀缺流域,传统水文模型率定困难,预测精度受到限制;深度学习方法关注单站点时间序列建模,未充分刻画流域整体时空关联特征。本文提出一种融合物理约束的CNN-GAN流域尺度日径流预测模型(Physics-constrained CNN-GAN,PCG),通过卷积神经网络(CNN)提取空间特征,生成对抗网络(GAN)对径流场进行约束优化,损失函数中嵌入物理约束,提升模型的物理合理性与鲁棒性。基于数据稀缺的怒江-伊洛瓦底江流域案例研究表明:PCG模型在流域尺度上具有更好的空间一致性;在站点尺度上,纳什效率系数(ENS)等均维持在较高水平,即便在水文条件复杂的站点仍表现出稳定性能(ENS >0.6),其综合表现优于基准对比模型和GloFAS模型。本研究成果可为数据稀缺地区的径流预测提供一种兼具高精度与物理可解释性的新方法。

     

    Abstract: High-precision streamflow forecasting is fundamental to water resources management and flood disaster mitigation. However, in data-scarce basins, traditional hydrological models are difficult to calibrate, limiting forecasting accuracy; deep learning methods focus on single-station time-series modeling and do not fully capture basin-wide spatiotemporal correlations. This paper proposes a physics-constrained CNN-GAN (PCG) model for basin-scale daily runoff forecasting. The model employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract spatial features and a generative adversarial network (GAN) to constrain and optimize the runoff field, while embedding physical constraints into the loss function to enhance physical rationality and robustness. In a case study of the data-scarce Nujiang-Irrawaddy River Basin, the PCG model demonstrates better spatial consistency on the basin scale. On the station scale, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and other metrics remain at relatively high levels, with stable performance even at sites under complex hydrological conditions (ENS > 0.6). Its overall performance outperforms that of the benchmark models and GloFAS. This study provides a novel method for streamflow forecasting in data-scarce regions that combines high accuracy with physical interpretability.

     

/

返回文章
返回