卫星资料在暴雨数值模拟中的应用研究

Application of the satellite data to numerical simulation of heavy rainfall

  • 摘要: 分析研究了2001年5月15日~8月15日3个月GMS卫星资料在湖南资水流域实时数值预报中的应用以及将TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)卫星上的TMI(Microwave Imager)雨水资料适时融入数值模式改变当时模式中雨水分布场,数值模拟还研究了发生在淮河流域的10次暴雨过程。结果表明:资水流域3个月的实时预报效果良好,准确预报出其中出现的3次致洪暴雨和1次特大暴雨;对淮河流域暴雨,由于TMI资料空间分辨率较高,能够很好地反映中小尺度系统的空间结构,加入模式后使得模拟出来的降雨强度,雨量中心时空分布更接近实际情况,10次暴雨过程的TS评分较不使用TMI资料更好。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we use the numerical model to perform the real-time rainfall forecast with GMS satellite data in Zishui River Basin from 15 May to 15 August in 2001.We also carry out numerical simulations of ten heavy rainfall cases in Huaihe River Basin with the TMI (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM) Microwave Imager data incorporated into the PSU/NCAR meso-scale model MM5 and use the data obtained by the TMI to change the distribution of rain water in the model.The results show that, for all floods caused by heavy rainfall events occurred in these 3 months in Zishui River Basin, our forecasts agree well with the observations.It provides the important reference for controlling flood beforehand Taking the Huaihe River Basin for example, since the TMI data can reflect meso-scale weather system with high resolution, the predicted rainfall distributions agree with the observations and the accuracy of predicting the threat score of ten heavy rainfall is higher than that without using the TMI data.

     

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