中国三大城市群城市化对短时和长时强降雨的影响

Effects of urbanization on short-duration and long-duration intense rainfall across China's three major urban agglomerations

  • 摘要: 在气候变化和城市化的双重影响下,密集城市群降水模式已发生改变。然而,针对不同降雨类型的城市化响应规律(尤其是气候-地理背景相异区域),认知仍显不足。本研究聚焦中国珠三角、长三角、京津冀三大城市群,基于高分辨率降雨和气象数据,系统分析城市化对短时强降雨(SDIR)和长时强降雨(LDIR)的影响机制及区域差异。结果表明:城市化对SDIR增强作用最显著,区域异质性突出,长三角与珠三角SDIR高值区集中于城市核心区,而京津冀因地形扰动及城市水汽抑制效应,SDIR高值区分布于山前过渡带;SDIR日变化受局地环流与水热条件调控,京津冀夜间强热岛与山谷环流促进夜间SDIR事件发生,珠三角与长三角午后海风水汽输送及高对流位能导致午后SDIR频发。京津冀和珠三角地区季风气流夜间增强及地形效应影响导致沿海及山前区域LDIR高发,长三角地区地形扰动较小,日间及夜间LDIR事件的高值区沿长江和城市呈带状分布,可能与该区域较高的对流有效位能有关。

     

    Abstract: Under the combined influences of climate change and urbanization, rainfall patterns in densely populated megacity clusters have experienced significant changes. However, the impacts of urbanization on rainfall patterns, particularly across regions with distinct climatic and geographic contexts, are still poorly understood. In this study, we focused on China's three major urban agglomerations (Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) and systematically analyzed the effects of urbanization on short-duration intense rainfall (SDIR) and long-duration intense rainfall (LDIR) using high-resolution precipitation data, revealing distinct regional divergence patterns. The results demonstrate that urbanization most significantly intensifies SDIR, with marked regional heterogeneity. SDIR hotspots are concentrated in urban cores within the YRD and PRD regions. However, in the BTH region, topographic disturbances and urban moisture suppression shift the SDIR hotspots toward piedmont transition zones. Diurnal SDIR variations are regulated by local circulations and hydrothermal conditions; nocturnal urban heat islands combined with mountain-valley circulations enhance nighttime SDIR events in the BTH, while afternoon sea breezes with moisture transport and high convective potential dominate SDIR frequency in the PRD and YRD. For LDIR, nocturnal monsoon intensification and topographic effects drive high coastal occurrence in the BTH and PRD, whereas the topographically homogeneous YRD exhibits LDIR hotspots linearly aligned with the Yangtze River and urban areas during both day and night, potentially linked to elevated convective available potential energy.

     

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