基于改进条件扩散模型的旱涝急转极端场景生成方法

Extreme scenario generation for drought-flood abrupt alternation based on improved conditional diffusion model

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变暖背景下,旱涝急转事件频发,对流域防洪抗旱和水资源调度构成严峻挑战,而极端事件样本的稀缺制约了传统生成模型对其突变特征的准确刻画。本文以双江口水库为研究对象,提出一种基于改进条件扩散模型的旱涝急转极端场景生成方法,基于1966—2025年共59 a的月径流数据开展验证试验。结果表明:生成序列与历史观测的统计分布高度一致,均值相对误差为3.3%,KL散度为0.1185,流量历时曲线纳什效率系数达0.985;月份条件下生成序列首月流量与历史同期均值的相关系数达0.995,准确复现了从枯水期到汛期的完整水文年循环相位;强度条件下生成事件与目标强度的平均绝对误差小于0.5个等级,急转事件分类准确率超过89%。该方法可在条件约束下生成超越有限历史记录但统计合理的极端情景,为旱涝急转风险评估与水库调度决策提供了新的技术手段。

     

    Abstract: Under the backdrop of global warming, abrupt transitions between drought and flood events have been rather frequent, posing severe challenges to flood-control, drought-resistance, and water-resource management in river basins. The scarce availability of extreme-event samples limits the ability of traditional generative models to accurately capture their abrupt characteristics. This study, focused on the Shuangjiangkou Reservoir, proposes an extreme-scenario-generation method for abrupt drought-flood transitions, based on an improved conditional diffusion model, validated using monthly runoff data from 1966 to 2025 (spanning 59 years). The results show that the generated sequences are highly consistent with the statistical distribution of historical observations, with a relative mean error of 3.3%, KL divergence of 0.1185, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.985 for the flow hydrograph; under monthly conditions, the correlation coefficient between the first-month flow of generated sequences and the historical mean of the same period reaches 0.995, thus accurately reproducing the full hydrological annual cycle from low-flow to flood periods; under intensity conditions, the mean absolute error between the generated events and target intensity is less than 0.5 levels, and the classification accuracy of abrupt events exceeds 89%. Thus, this method can generate statistically reasonable extreme scenarios beyond the limited historical record under conditional constraints, thereby providing a new technical approach for abrupt drought-flood risk assessment and reservoir-operation decision-making.

     

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