Application of the virtual water trade to China’s grain security
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摘要: 借助虚拟水的概念,分析以粮食为载体的虚拟水国际、区际流量关系,以勾勒我国虚拟水贸易的基本格局。通过对未来我国在不同粮食发展战略下的粮食供需情况,确定我国粮食进口基本规模,对未来我国虚拟水贸易格局进行展望。分析结果表明,1999年我国北方通过粮食贸易向南方地区输出的虚拟水量达到184亿m3。我国北方地区以有限的水资源在支持其他区域发展、确保国家粮食安全方面发挥了不可替代的作用。未来30年中国将面临新增粮食需求1.4亿~2.0亿t的巨大压力,在保持较高自给水平的前提下,我国虚拟水贸易的格局不会发生重大变化。外流域调水工程是保障国家粮食安全,维护社会稳定,促进可持续发展和造福中国人民的重大举措。虚拟水战略可作为跨流域调水的补充,在保障缺水地区水安全方面发挥重要作用。Abstract: China's grain issue already becomes a hot topic in the world. This paper attempts to use the concept of the virtual water as a tool to analyze the virtual water flows with grain between China and other nations,as well as between the regions within China. Based on the grain supply and demand under the different development strategies in the future,the paper identi-fies the grain trade scale and makes a prospect for the virtual water trade condensed in grain. The result shows that North China exports a virtual water flow of 18.4 billion m3 to South China in 1999,which indicates North China plays an import role in en-suring China's grain security and socio-economic development. In the future China will face with the big pressure of the rapid growth in grain demand. To ensure the national grain security China has to depend on herself to solve the grain issue. To keep the high level of the grain self-sufficiency,the inter-basin water transfer project is not only an effective way to prevent North China from suffering water crisis but also an important strategy to ensure the country's grain security,keep the social stability and promote sustainable development. In the meantime,the virtual water trade can be as a supplement to ensure water security in water scarce region.
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Key words:
- virtual water /
- grain security /
- region /
- trade
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