三峡入库洪峰组成变化及原因分析

Changes in the composition of flood peaks in the Three Gorges Reservoir and analysis of its causes

  • 摘要: 洪峰流量是洪水特征的重要指标,其组成变化对水库调度十分重要。三峡入库洪水组成研究多聚焦3d及以上时间,对洪峰来水组成关注不足。本文利用1976—2020年长江上游实测雨洪资料,通过数理统计分析三峡入库洪峰的来源组成及变化,并从降雨解释变化原因。结果表明:洪水涨落过程中越接近峰值,嘉陵江贡献越大,岷沱江贡献稳定,金沙江贡献越小。洪峰流量小于30000m3/s时,金沙江来水占主(34%);大于40000 m3/s时,嘉陵江来水占主(42%);3000040000万m3/s区间,不同时段来水占主的流域在发生调整。除金沙江流域来水受降雨和水库调蓄共同影响,其余流域流量变化与降雨变化呈正相关。不同时段嘉陵江流域降雨变化较大,流量变幅较大,是引起洪峰组成发生变化的主因。

     

    Abstract: The peak flow is an important indicator of flood characteristics, and changes in its composition are crucial for reservoir scheduling. Research on the composition of incoming flood peaks of the Three Gorges Reservoir has focused mainly on periods of three days or more, with less attention given to the study of the peak inflow composition. In this paper, measured rainfall and flood data from the upper Yangtze River for the 1976 to 2020 period were utilized to statistically analyze the composition and variation in peak inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir and to explain these variations in terms of rainfall. The results revealed that as the flood level increased, the contribution of the Jialing River increased, the contributions of the Min and Tuo Rivers remained stable, and the contribution of the Jinsha River decreased. When the peak flow was less than 30 000 m3/s, the Jinsha River contributed the most (34%); when the peak flow exceeded 40 000 m3/s, the Jialing River contributed the most (42%); and within the 30 000 and 40 000 m3/s range, the dominant tributary changed during different periods. Except for the Jinsha River, of which the inflow is affected by both rainfall and reservoir regulation, the variations in the flows from the other tributaries are positively correlated with rainfall. Significant variations in rainfall in the Jialing River basin during different periods lead to high fluctuations in flow, which is the main cause of peak inflow composition changes.

     

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