青藏高原径流变化分析与问题讨论

Analysis of runoff variation and related issues on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原作为“世界屋脊”和“亚洲水塔”,是全球第三大淡水资源库,养育了9国近20亿人口,对亚洲水安全与生态保障至关重要。20世纪50年代以来,高原呈显著暖湿化趋势,气温升幅高于全球平均水平,降水总体呈增加趋势,冰冻圈退化,水资源失衡。长系列资料分析结果表明:长江、黄河、澜沧江、雅鲁藏布江源区降水和径流均呈现时空分异性和阶段性变化特征;1961—2024年各江河降水总体呈增加趋势,但1998年前后南北坡降水发生不同趋势的变化,北坡黄河流域降雨呈现显著性增加,南坡长江、澜沧江、雅鲁藏布江等流域降雨由增转减;受降水影响外,源区径流还受冰川融水影响,以长江源区直门达站为例,1998年后降水呈现减少态势,但径流呈现增加趋势;黄河唐乃亥站和兰州站径流随降水显著增加,径流由1998年前的减少趋势变为增加。当前青藏高原水资源面临固态水储量消耗,冰川融水短期增加径流但长期不可持续,径流季节分配改变、水安全风险加剧等问题。为应对挑战,需规范人类活动减缓气候影响、强化水资源刚性约束、拓展非常规水资源利用,保障水资源可持续性利用。

     

    Abstract: As the "Roof of the World" and the "Water Tower of Asia", the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the third-largest freshwater reservoir globally, supporting nearly 2 billion people across 9 countries and playing a pivotal role in safeguarding Asia's water security and ecological stability. Since the 1950s, the plateau has witnessed a distinct trend of warming and humidification, with a temperature rise exceeding the global average, an overall increase in precipitation, cryosphere degradation, and an imbalance in water resources. Analysis of long-term series data shows that precipitation and runoff in the source regions of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Lancang River, and Yarlung Zangbo River exhibit characteristics of spatiotemporal heterogeneity and phased variation. From 1961 to 2024, precipitation in these river basins generally showed an increasing trend, but around 1998, precipitation trends diverged between the northern and southern slopes: rainfall in the Yellow River basin on the northern slope increased significantly, while rainfall in the basins of the Yangtze River, Lancang River, and Yarlung Zangbo River on the southern slope shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend. In addition to the impact of precipitation, runoff in the source regions is also influenced by glacial meltwater. Taking the Zhimenda Station in the Yangtze River source region as an example, precipitation has decreased since 1998, but runoff has continued to increase. Runoff at the Tangnaihai and Lanzhou stations of the Yellow River has increased significantly with precipitation, reversing the decreasing trend observed before 1998. At present, the water resources of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau face several challenges, including the depletion of solid water reserves, the short-term runoff increase driven by unsustainable glacial meltwater in the long run, altered seasonal runoff distribution, and intensified water security risks. To address these challenges, it is necessary to regulate human activities to mitigate the impacts of climate change, strengthen the rigid constraints on water resources, expand the utilization of unconventional water resources, and ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources.

     

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