特大城市外洪内涝灾害链联防联控关键科学技术问题

Key scientific and technological issues of joint prevention and control of river flood and urban waterlogging disaster chain in megacities

  • 摘要: 近年来,特大城市极端暴雨内涝和流域洪水叠加导致的洪涝灾害风险呈增加趋势,造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失,亟待开展流域洪水和城市内涝灾害链联防联控研究。融合气象科学、水文科学、信息科学、防灾减灾科学等多学科理论与方法,重点解决城市外洪内涝组合致灾机理与灾害链风险传递规律关键科学问题; 突破流域-城市一体化协同监测与早期风险感知技术、城市外洪内涝链生灾害智能预警与定向发布技术、跨尺度洪涝耦合模拟与联合防控场景推演技术、城市洪涝联防联控应急预案编制与智能化决策技术等4项关键技术。构建以空天地气象水文协同观测、社会经济多源信息汇聚分析、灾害动力模型推演为基础的联防联控应急指挥决策业务系统,突出实时性、动态化、精准性和智能化,支撑特大城市外洪内涝全过程预报、预警、预演、预案“四预”业务实践。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the risk of extreme super rainstorm in megacities coupled with big flood in rivers has been increasing, which caused heavy casualties and property losses. It is necessary to carry out joint prevention and control measurements to cope with river flood and urban waterlogging disaster chains. At present, it is an urgent need to integrate multidisciplinary theories and methods of meteorological science, hydrological science, information technology, disaster prevention and mitigation technology, to solve the key scientific and technological issues. The key scientific issue is the combination mechanism of river-urban flood and the risk transmission rule of disaster chain. Besides, there are four key technological issues : ① To integrate the river and urban meteorological-hydrological observation facilities into a collaborative one to monitor and forecast the flood risk. ② Intelligent early warning and directional message broadcasting technology for river flood and urban waterlogging disaster chain. ③ Coupled simulation of river-urban flood and demonstration of joint prevention and control scenarios. ④ Intelligent decision-making technology for river-urban joint flood control and emergency plan preparation. Based on the collaborative observation of meteorology and hydrology, social and economic multi-source information convergence analysis, and disaster deduction model, an emergency command and decision support system could be built for joint prevention and control of river-urban flood. The system highlights real-time, dynamic assessment, precision and intelligence to support the whole-process river-urban flood regulation. It could provide technical support for flood forecasting, early warning, scenario-demonstration and emergency plan preparation in megacities.

     

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