青藏高原拉萨河流域径流组成及驱动因素

Runoff composition and its driving factors in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原冰冻圈快速变化正在重塑高寒流域水循环过程。以拉萨河流域为例,本文基于气象水文站点、冰川编目及积雪遥感等多源数据,采用VIC-glacier模型重建并解析拉萨河流域1975—2016年降雨、融雪与融冰径流过程。结果表明:模型在拉萨、唐加、旁多和羊八井4个水文站的日径流模拟效果良好(纳什效率系数>0.70,相对误差<10%),并能合理再现流域冰川退缩与积雪季节变化;下游拉萨站多年平均径流以降雨径流为主(75.8%),融雪和融冰径流分别占22.2%和2.0%;上游羊八井站融冰径流的贡献达41.8%;研究期内融雪径流显著下降(− 0.693 mm/a),融冰径流持续上升(0.047 mm/a),降水是径流年际波动的首要影响因子,而气温通过调控融水过程重塑径流组成并呈现显著的季节性差异。本研究可为流域水资源变化评估与适应性管理提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Cryospheric change on the Tibetan Plateau is reshaping its hydrological processes and threatening regional water security. The Lhasa River, which is the largest tributary of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, is a typical example of a river in a meltwater-fed basin that is highly sensitive to climate change. Using the VIC-glacier model constrained by multisource datasets, including meteorological and hydrological observations, glacier inventories, and satellite snow products, the runoff components of the Lhasa River Basin during 1975—2016 were reconstructed and partitioned. The daily discharge was consistently reproduced at four gauges (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: > 0.70; relative error: < 10%). At the downstream gauge on the Lhasa River, mean annual runoff was dominated by rainfall runoff (75.8%), with snowmelt and glacier melt water contributing 22.2% and 2.0%, respectively; at the upstream Yangbajing gauge, glacier melt water accounted for 41.8% of runoff. Over the study period, snowmelt runoff declined substantially (− 0.693 mm/a), whereas glacier meltwater runoff increased (0.047 mm/a). Precipitation was the primary control on runoff variability, while air temperature reshaped runoff composition by regulating meltwater processes, exhibiting pronounced seasonal contrasts. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing water-resource changes and supporting adaptive management in high-altitude basins.

     

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