Comprehensive analysis of drought duration characteristics for regional water-supply system
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摘要: 根据区域供水系统中供水水库(群)的蓄水状态及其运行调度策略在满足区域供水目标方面的重要作用,提出了以水库(群)的时段初始蓄水量与时段内来水量之和,以及时段内供水系统的目标需水量作为主要控制参数,以两者的差值正、负来表达供水系统处于非干旱状态和干旱状态的区域干旱鉴别方法。为了多角度地分析干旱和非干旱历时分布、转移概率以及干旱重现期等干旱历时特性以较全面地掌握区域干旱事件特征,针对一具体区域供水系统,运用模拟统计法和概率解析法两种技术手段来研究区域干旱历时特性,同时针对两种方法的计算结果差异,指出了各种方法的特征以及产生差异的原因。Abstract: According to the importance of storage state and the operation policy of reservoir or reservoir-group for satisfying the water requirements of regional water-supply system,the regional drought identification procedure,which is taken as the key judgment parameters,the sum of the initial time-period storage of reservoir and the inflow within the period,and the goal water requirement of water-supply system are proposed.The procedure indicates the drought and non-drought status of the water-supply system by the positive and negative sign of the difference of the above two key parameters.To make the comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of the regional drought,such as the distribution pattern of the drought and non-drought duration, the transfer probabilities,the recurrence interval of drought,etc.,we,from various research aspects,take a real water-supply system as example.Both the simulating and statistical method and probability analysis method are applied to the drought duration study.Meanwhile,the distinction of the traits and the computing results of two methods and their causes are pointed out.
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