城市湖泊水华预警模型研究——以北京“六海”为例

曾勇; 杨志峰; 刘静玲

城市湖泊水华预警模型研究——以北京“六海”为例

水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京, 100875

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50239020);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2006CB403303)

详细信息

作者简介:
曾勇(1974- ),男,福建宁化人,博士后,主要从事水资源与水环境管理方面研究.

通讯作者:
杨志峰,E-mail:Zfyang@bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: X524
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- 文章访问数: 134
- HTML全文浏览量: 18
- PDF下载量: 472
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2005-09-15
- 修回日期: 2006-02-23
- 刊出日期: 2007-01-24

Algalbloom prediction models for Liuhai-lake in Beijing city

State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environmental, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Basic Research and Development Program of China(2006CB403303)and the Key Program ofNational Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50239020).

摘要

摘要: 采用决策树方法和非线性回归方法建立湖泊水华预警模型。决策树方法预测水华爆发时机,非线性回归方法预测水华爆发强度,并运用信号灯显示方法,划分出水华爆发的预警区间。以北京六海为例,模型结果表明来水水量Q,温度T和总磷浓度是影响“六海”湖泊水华爆发的主要影响因子,选择叶绿素a(Chl-a)<30 μg/L的预警信号为绿色,30 μg/L60 μg/L为红色。当每月来水量Q>79.0万m³或来水量Q<79.0万m³,水温<13.4℃,预警指标为绿色;Q<79.0万m³,水温T>13.4℃,水华预警为黄色;Q<38.7万m³时,T>23.25℃,TP>0.13 mg/L,水华预警为红色。对模型结果分类进行了验证。结果表明:模型对于限制因素发生变化时的水华预测结果更为准确,并且结构简单,输入输出关系明显,结果易于解释。
- 水华 /
- 预警 /
- 决策树 /
- 非线性回归 /
- 信号灯显示 /
- 北京六海
Abstract: The algalbloom prediction models are constructed by using the decision trees to qualitatively predict bloom timing and use the nonlinear piecewise regression to quantitatively predict bloom intensity.The traffic light systems are used as the indicator for degree of algal bloom.Liuhai-lake in Beijing city is used an example.The constructed model indicates that the water inflow,the temperature and total phosphorus are the most impact factors on the algalbloom in Liuhai-lake.The concentration of Chl-a<30 μg/L is labeled as green,30 μg/L60 μg/L as red.When water inflow Q>79.0×10⁴m³ or Q<79.0×10⁴m³ and water temperature<13.4℃,the indicator is green;when Q<79.0×10⁴m³, water temperature T>13.4℃,the indicator is yellow;and when Q<38.7×10⁴m³,water temperature>23.25℃,TP>0.13 μg/L,the indicator is red.The model is test by an independent dataset from the same area,the predicted blooming time error rate and the error of predicted bloom intensity are presented in the paper.The model has great advantages to deal with the common problem in algal-blooms.It's more accurate when the limiting factor is changing.And the structure is understandable and easy to interpret.
- algalbloom /
- prediction /
- decision trees /
- nonlinear regression /
- traffic light system /
- Liuhai-lake in Beijing city

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参考文献(17)

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文章访问数: 134
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城市湖泊水华预警模型研究——以北京“六海”为例

作者简介: 曾勇(1974- ),男,福建宁化人,博士后,主要从事水资源与水环境管理方面研究.

通讯作者: 杨志峰,E-mail:Zfyang@bnu.edu.cn

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出版历程

Algalbloom prediction models for Liuhai-lake in Beijing city

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出版历程

目录

作者简介:
曾勇(1974- ),男,福建宁化人,博士后,主要从事水资源与水环境管理方面研究.

通讯作者:
杨志峰,E-mail:Zfyang@bnu.edu.cn