干旱频率分析研究进展

程亮; 金菊良; 郦建强; 王宗志; 李磊; 袁潇晨

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干旱频率分析研究进展

程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 王宗志, 李磊, 袁潇晨

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2013 > 24(2): 296-302

程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 王宗志, 李磊, 袁潇晨. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

引用本文:

程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 王宗志, 李磊, 袁潇晨. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

CHENG Liang, JIN Juliang, LI Jianqiang, WANG Zongzhi, LI Lei, YUAN Xiaochen. Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

Citation:

CHENG Liang, JIN Juliang, LI Jianqiang, WANG Zongzhi, LI Lei, YUAN Xiaochen. Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

干旱频率分析研究进展

1.
南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210029;
2.
合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥 230009;
3.
水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100011;
4.
国核电力规划设计研究院,北京 100094

基金项目: 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001043);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273081)

详细信息

作者简介:
程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn

通讯作者:
金菊良,E-mail:jinjl66@126.com

中图分类号: TV122;G353.11

Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis

1.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;
2.
School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;
3.
Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, MWR, Beijing 100011, China;
4.
State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design& Research Institute, Beijing 100094, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Non-Profit Research Program of China (No.201001043) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71273081).

摘要: 从干旱定义与识别、点干旱频率分析和区域干旱频率分析3个方面系统阐述了干旱频率分析研究进展和存在问题,归纳了适用于干旱频率分析的干旱定义,干旱识别存在的主要问题以及区域干旱频率分析研究的3种途径。提出综合利用研究区域水文气象特性、干旱成因、旱情、旱灾,并结合前期的大气环流条件等信息来描述和识别干旱,重点开展对干旱特征变量的理论分布、干旱事件重现期公式和经验频率公式等基本理论的研究,关注区域干旱频率分析,注重对径流、土壤水、地下水和供水系统的干旱特性分析。
- 干旱定义 /
- 干旱识别 /
- 多变量干旱频率分析 /
- 区域干旱频率分析
Abstract: China frequently experiences large scale drought events.The latter have become one ofthe most important restraining factors affecting the socioeconomic development.Drought frequency analysis can reveal the characteristics of drought occurrences and their spatial and temporal distributions.Such an analysis is essential to the water resources planning, designing and management, as well as the risk-based management of drought disasters.In this paper, research progresses are systematically reviewed on the definition and identification of droughts and on the point to regional frequency analysis of droughts.The concerning issues are also reported on.In addition, the drought definitions applicable to drought frequency analysis are highlighted.The main problems in drought identifications are discussed.Three approaches for regional frequency analysis of droughts are summarized.Finally, it is proposed that the description and identification of droughts should take full advantages of the regional information on the hydrographical and meteorological characteristics, the atmospheric circulation condition, as well as the cause and extent of droughts.The basic theoretical issues in the distribution of variables, the drought return period and the empirical frequency need to be further studied.There should be paid more attention on the analysis of regional drought frequency and drought characteristics related to runoff, soil water and water system.
- drought definition /
- drought identification /
- multivariable drought frequency analysis /
- regional drought frequency analysis

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[2]	徐翔宇, 许凯, 杨大文, 郦建强. 多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法 . 水科学进展, 2019, 30(3): 373-381. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.03.007
[3]	陈文倩, 丁建丽, 马勇刚, 张喆, 周杰. 亚洲中部干旱区积雪时空变异遥感分析 . 水科学进展, 2018, 29(1): 11-19. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2018.01.002
[4]	张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 吴志勇, 周玉良. 基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法 . 水科学进展, 2017, 28(5): 691-701. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006
[5]	赵雪花, 赵茹欣. 水文干旱指数在汾河上游的适用性分析 . 水科学进展, 2016, 27(4): 512-519. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.04.004
[6]	贾瑞亮, 周金龙, 高业新, 周殷竹, 李阳, 栗现文. 干旱区高盐度潜水蒸发规律初步分析 . 水科学进展, 2015, 26(1): 44-50. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.01.006
[7]	万金红, 吕娟, 刘和平, 刘建刚, 杨志勇, 陈方舟. 1470—2008年中国西北干旱地区旱涝变化特征分析 . 水科学进展, 2014, 25(5): 625-631.
[8]	刘文琨, 裴源生, 赵勇, 肖伟华. 区域气象干旱评估分析模式 . 水科学进展, 2014, 25(3): 318-326.
[9]	严登华, 袁喆, 杨志勇, 王勇, 于赢东. 1961年以来海河流域干旱时空变化特征分析 . 水科学进展, 2013, 24(1): 34-41.
[10]	吴迪, 裴源生, 赵勇, 严登华. 基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析 . 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 599-608. doi: CNKI: 32.1309.P.20120614.2158.006
[11]	陆桂华, 闫桂霞, 吴志勇, 康燕霞. 基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法 . 水科学进展, 2010, 21(2): 188-193.
[12]	方红远, 甘升伟, 余莹莹. 区域供水系统干旱历时特性综合分析 . 水科学进展, 2007, 18(1): 95-101.
[13]	王晓红, 乔云峰, 沈荣开, 尹正杰, 胡铁松. 灌区干旱风险评估模型研究 . 水科学进展, 2004, 15(1): 77-81.
[14]	周振民. 区域干旱特征理论及其应用 . 水科学进展, 2004, 15(4): 479-484.
[15]	顾颖, 刘培. 应用模拟技术进行区域干旱分析 . 水科学进展, 1998, 9(3): 269-274.
[16]	宋慧珠, 张世法. 区域干旱统计特征初步分析 . 水科学进展, 1994, 5(1): 18-25.
[17]	顾颖, 咎霞. 农业干旱模拟研究 . 水科学进展, 1993, 4(4): 253-259.
[18]	张国威, 周聿超. 新疆内陆干旱区蒸发的计算和分析 . 水科学进展, 1992, 3(3): 226-232.
[19]	王洪道, 张学斌. 西北干旱区湖泊的近期变化 . 水科学进展, 1991, 2(4): 238-243.
[20]	贺勤, 吴晓东. 内蒙古中西部干旱和半干旱地区暴雨的气候特征分析 . 水科学进展, 1991, 2(4): 232-237.

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干旱频率分析研究进展

1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210029;

2. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥 230009;

3. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100011;

4. 国核电力规划设计研究院,北京 100094

基金项目: 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001043);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273081)

作者简介:
程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:jinjl66@126.com

收稿日期: 2011-04-26
刊出日期: 2013-03-25

中图分类号: TV122;G353.11

关键词:

摘要: 从干旱定义与识别、点干旱频率分析和区域干旱频率分析3个方面系统阐述了干旱频率分析研究进展和存在问题,归纳了适用于干旱频率分析的干旱定义,干旱识别存在的主要问题以及区域干旱频率分析研究的3种途径。提出综合利用研究区域水文气象特性、干旱成因、旱情、旱灾,并结合前期的大气环流条件等信息来描述和识别干旱,重点开展对干旱特征变量的理论分布、干旱事件重现期公式和经验频率公式等基本理论的研究,关注区域干旱频率分析,注重对径流、土壤水、地下水和供水系统的干旱特性分析。

English Abstract

Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;

2. School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;

3. Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, MWR, Beijing 100011, China;

4. State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design& Research Institute, Beijing 100094, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Non-Profit Research Program of China (No.201001043) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71273081).

Received Date: 2011-04-26
Publish Date: 2013-03-25

Keywords:

drought definition /
drought identification /
multivariable drought frequency analysis /
regional drought frequency analysis

Abstract: China frequently experiences large scale drought events.The latter have become one ofthe most important restraining factors affecting the socioeconomic development.Drought frequency analysis can reveal the characteristics of drought occurrences and their spatial and temporal distributions.Such an analysis is essential to the water resources planning, designing and management, as well as the risk-based management of drought disasters.In this paper, research progresses are systematically reviewed on the definition and identification of droughts and on the point to regional frequency analysis of droughts.The concerning issues are also reported on.In addition, the drought definitions applicable to drought frequency analysis are highlighted.The main problems in drought identifications are discussed.Three approaches for regional frequency analysis of droughts are summarized.Finally, it is proposed that the description and identification of droughts should take full advantages of the regional information on the hydrographical and meteorological characteristics, the atmospheric circulation condition, as well as the cause and extent of droughts.The basic theoretical issues in the distribution of variables, the drought return period and the empirical frequency need to be further studied.There should be paid more attention on the analysis of regional drought frequency and drought characteristics related to runoff, soil water and water system.

程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 王宗志, 李磊, 袁潇晨. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

引用本文:

程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 王宗志, 李磊, 袁潇晨. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

CHENG Liang, JIN Juliang, LI Jianqiang, WANG Zongzhi, LI Lei, YUAN Xiaochen. Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

Citation:

CHENG Liang, JIN Juliang, LI Jianqiang, WANG Zongzhi, LI Lei, YUAN Xiaochen. Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013, 24(2): 296-302.

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干旱频率分析研究进展

作者简介: 程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:jinjl66@126.com

Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis

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出版历程

干旱频率分析研究进展

1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210029; 2. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥 230009; 3. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100011; 4. 国核电力规划设计研究院,北京 100094

作者简介: 程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn

通讯作者: 金菊良,E-mail:jinjl66@126.com

English Abstract

Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis

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目录

作者简介:
程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn

通讯作者:
金菊良,E-mail:jinjl66@126.com

1. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210029;

2. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥 230009;

3. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100011;

4. 国核电力规划设计研究院,北京 100094

作者简介:
程亮(1985-),男,湖北浠水人,博士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程研究。E-mail:chengliang@nhri.cn