洪水高风险区雨水情监测预报预警关键技术研究框架

Framework for key technologies in monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of rainfall and flood conditions in high-risk flood areas

  • 摘要: 提高洪水高风险区雨水情监测预报预警能力,是有效应对极端性、反常性、突发性致洪暴雨趋频趋广及其灾害影响的国家重大需求和国际前沿课题。本文以延长洪水预见期与提高预报精准度为目标,聚焦极端降水监测预报精度、超标准洪水模拟、防洪“四预”平台等技术薄弱环节,阐述了雨水情监测预报预警拟解决的关键科学问题;提出“机理揭示—技术开发—装备研制”总体研究思路,阐明亟需重点攻克的面雨量监测预报、洪水影响模拟预报、国产化小型测雨雷达和通用化防洪“四预”平台的关键技术;提出高精度雨量场智能监测预报与递进式预警关键技术、流域时变条件下超标准洪水过程及其影响一体化预报技术、适应“三道防线”信息差异化的雨水情监测预报装备与智能管理平台等重难点的研究展望。研究有望提升中国雨水情监测预报“三道防线”的建设水平,为暴雨洪水灾害防御提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the capacity for monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of rainfall and flood conditions in high-risk flood areas represents a critical national demand and an international frontier topic, addressing the increasing frequency, scope, and disaster impacts of extreme, anomalous, and sudden flood-inducing rainstorms. Aiming to extend flood prediction lead times and improve forecast accuracy, this paper focuses on key technological challenges, including the precision of extreme precipitation monitoring and forecasting, simulation of exceedance-level floods, and the “four-Pre” (Pre-forecast, Pre-warning, Pre-simulation, Pre-planning) platform for flood control. It begins by elaborating on the key scientific problems to be addressed in rainfall and flood monitoring, forecasting, and early warning. Subsequently, a comprehensive research framework centered on “mechanism exploration–technology development–equipment innovation” is proposed. The study outlines critical technologies and research components requiring breakthroughs, such as areal rainfall monitoring and forecasting, simulation and forecasting of flood and it’s impacts, domestically produced miniaturized rainfall radars, and a universal “four-Pre” platform for flood control, along with anticipated outcomes. This research is expected to advance the construction of China’s “three lines of defense” in rainfall and flood monitoring and forecasting, providing technical support for the prevention of rainstorm and flood disasters in the country.

     

/

返回文章
返回