2015—2024年中国水资源和用水结构的时空演变及成因

Evolution and causes of water resources and water consumption in China from 2015 to 2024

  • 摘要: 水资源作为基础性自然资源和战略性经济资源,随着经济社会的快速发展,用水安全对国家可持续发展至关重要。基于中国十大水资源一级区2015—2024年水资源量及用水量数据,结合第三次全国水资源调查评价成果,利用Mann-Kendall和Theil-Sen斜率估计等统计学方法,系统分析2015—2024年中国水资源及用水量时空演变特征。结果表明:2015—2024年,全国水资源总量较第三次水资源调查评价基准值增长2.08%,呈现“北增南减”的变化空间格局,其中北方地区增加约13.16%,南方地区略有下降;国家用水量整体呈下降趋势,同时用水结构发生变化,生活用水和生态用水增加明显,其中生态用水增加243.8%,工业、农业用水减少,其中农业用水量减少显著;农业用水减少主要得益于耕地实际灌溉亩均用水量减少,工业用水减少的主要原因为工业万元增加值用水量的减少,生活用水增长主要归因于人口增加,而生态用水量的显著增加主要源于生态保护政策的实施。研究成果可为新时期水资源优化配置、利用效率提升等方面提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Water resources, as fundamental natural assets and strategic economic resources, are crucial to national sustainable development amid rapid economic and social growth. Based on data on water resource and water consumption across China’s ten primary water resource zones from 2015 to 2024, and incorporating findings from the Third National Water Resources Survey and Assessment, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water resources and water consumption in China during 2015—2024 using the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator. The results indicate that between 2015 and 2024, the total national water resources increased by 2.08% compared to the baseline value of the Third National Water Resources Survey and Assessment, showing a spatial pattern of "increase in the north and decrease in the south." Specifically, water resources in Northern China increased by approximately 13.16%, while a slight decline occurred in the southern region. National total water consumption exhibited an overall downward trend, accompanied by shifts in the water use structure, domestic and ecological water consumption increased notably, with ecological water consumption rising by 243.8%; meanwhile, industrial and agricultural water consumption decreased, with agricultural water consumption declining significantly. The reduction in agricultural water consumption is attributed mainly to decreased water consumption per mu in actual irrigated farmland, while the decline in industrial water consumption is primarily due to reduced water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industrial added value. The growth in domestic water consumption is largely driven by population increase, and the substantial rise in ecological water consumption stems mainly from the implementation of ecological conservation policies. The findings in this study will provide a scientific basis for optimizing water resource allocation and promoting sustainable utilization in the new era.

     

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