考虑地表-管道淤积影响的城市洪涝模拟

Urban flood simulation considering the effects of surface and pipeline siltation

  • 摘要: 针对目前城市洪涝模拟未充分考虑管道淤积对地表地下产汇流的影响问题,结合地表-管道淤积一二维耦合控制方程、地表地下滞留箱模型和管网等效淤积度智能预测方法,构建了考虑地表-管道淤积影响的城市洪涝模拟模型。以上海市长宁区为例,选取不同实测降雨情景进行洪涝模拟性能对比。结果表明:①与其他智能预测算法相比,本研究提出的管网等效淤积度智能预测方法在准确性和鲁棒性方面具有显著优势。②在实测降雨条件下,淹没水深和淹没面积模拟值的准确性明显优于传统雨洪数值模型,淹没面积的预测准确率保持在86.1%以上,淹没水深预测结果的平均绝对误差下降0.13。③当降雨重现期大于2a时,随着降雨重现期的增加,管道清淤条件下的淹没体积削减率呈逐渐下降趋势,管道清淤对淹没面积削减率呈现出先增加后减少的趋势。本研究可为城市洪涝模拟和精准化防灾减灾提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the issue that current urban flood simulations do not fully consider the impact of pipeline siltation on surface and subsurface runoff generation and confluence, an urban flood simulation model considering the effects of surface and pipeline siltation is developed by integrating the surface-pipeline siltation 1D-2D coupled governing equations, the surface-subsurface retention box model, and the intelligent prediction method for the equivalent siltation degree of pipe networks. Taking Changning District of Shanghai as an example, different measured rainfall scenarios were selected to compare the performance of flood simulation. The results show that: ① Compared with other intelligent prediction algorithms, the intelligent prediction method for the equivalent siltation degree of pipe networks proposed in this study has significant advantages in terms of accuracy and robustness. ② Under measured rainfall conditions, the accuracy of the simulated values of inundation depth and inundation area is significantly better than that of the traditional rainstorm numerical model. The prediction accuracy of inundation area remains above 86.1%, and the mean absolute error of the inundation depth prediction results is reduced by 0.13. ③ When the recurrence period of rainfall is greater than 2 years, the reduction rate of inundation volume under pipeline dredging conditions shows a gradually decreasing trend with the increase of rainfall return period. The reduction rate of inundation area by pipeline dredging presents a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. This study can provide technical support for urban flood simulation and precise disaster prevention and mitigation.

     

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