长江与黄河流域历史复合型水文干旱-热浪事件及成因分析

Historical analysis of compound hydrological drought-heatwave events and their causes in the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins

  • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,高温与干旱等极端事件日趋频繁且复合发生。为提高对复合事件发生规律和形成机制的认识,研究采用分布式水文模型模拟长江与黄河流域历史时段(1971—2020年)径流序列,计算标准化径流指数识别水文干旱;利用阈值法识别热浪事件,构造复合型水文干旱-热浪指数,从历时、频次和烈度3个维度分析复合事件的空间分布特征,并从水汽收支、陆气能量传递、环流异常等角度揭示复合事件的成因。结果表明:两流域水文干旱历时2~6个月,每年发生0.1~3次,烈度范围0.1~8;热浪历时4~6 d,每年发生1.6~2.6次,烈度范围6~12;复合事件历时4~7 d,频次约每年0.1~2次,烈度范围为6~14;复合事件发生前期由非绝热加热主导热量积累,中后期温度平流与绝热加热的负反馈效应显著增强;事件期间,两流域长短波辐射异常增加,陆气反馈增强;同时,南亚高压与西太副高偏强,降水减少、水汽输送受阻,黄河与长江流域径流分别减少7.0%与8.6%。水汽收支失衡及陆-气反馈增强是复合事件形成的核心机制。

     

    Abstract: Under global climate change, extreme events such as heatwaves and droughts tend to occur more frequently and concurrently. To improve the understanding of the occurrence patterns and formation mechanisms of the compound events, this study employed a distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff sequences in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins during the historical period of 1971—2020. The standardized runoff index was calculated to identify hydrological droughts, while a threshold method was applied to detect heatwave events. A compound hydrological drought-heatwave index was constructed to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of such compound events in terms of duration, frequency, and intensity. The causes were investigated from perspectives including moisture budget, land-atmosphere energy transfer, and atmospheric circulation anomalies. The results show that hydrological droughts in both basins lasted 2—6 months, occurring 0.1—3 times annually with intensities ranging from 0.1 to 8; heatwaves lasted 4—6 days, occurring 1.6—2.6 times annually with intensities of 6—12; and the compound events lasted 4—7 days, occurring approximately 0.1—2 times annually with intensities of 6—14. In the early phase of the compound events, heat accumulation was dominated by diabatic heating, while in the mid-to-late phase, the negative feedback effect of temperature advection and adiabatic heating becomes significantly enhanced. During the events, both longwave and shortwave radiation anomalies increased in the two basins, intensifying land-atmosphere feedback. In addition, strengthened South Asian and Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure systems reduced precipitation and impeded moisture transport, leading to runoff reduction of 7.0% in the Yellow River basin and 8.6% in the Yangtze River basin. The imbalance in water vapor budgets and enhanced land-atmosphere feedback are identified as the core mechanisms driving the formation of the compound events.

     

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